Above is a link showing just how England can take the rest of the UK with them more or less depending on the result they choose..
euref potential Leave/Remain voters using the UKGE2015 voting figures
European election results could be converted into Leave/Remain votes
And above is links to previous forecasts I have done using my own judgement on splits. There were many replies saying there were differing splits to the one I used. So I have now put it out to you to say how you feel the parties are split.
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This is first draft as still to level out with percentages from council results who didn't count Thursday night as well as the London wide elections.
You can see that it is weighted in my opinion strongly to the Leave, The percentages are ones used from the Twitter poll as people believe that party voters are more pro leave, I don't think that is the case. And the percentages are higher for UKIP and Conservatives with London to be added.
So with all this in mind it does show that with everything in favour of Leave they can only just win.
Numbers will be refined next week and a final draft of the forecast displayed.
+++ decided to leave it as this, just simply to show even with a very pro leave weighting it only just goes to LEAVE it seems REMAIN has the strongest chance. +++
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Thursdays election results and voter turnout and converting them a EU Referendum forecast.
A week ago we asked how you believe the voters from each political party is split over europe and will be using that for our forecast.
Link to twitter polls >>> How do you believe the UK political parties are split on Europe?
| ..... | Electorate (using ge2015 Turnout) voters | Leave | Remain |
| England | 38,806,649 (65.9%) 25,573,581 | 13,566,529 | 12,007,052 |
| Con | 38% - 9,717,960 | (60%) 5,830,776 | (40%) 3,887,184 |
| Lab | 34.6% - 8,848,459 | (40%) 3,539,384 | (60%) 5,309,075 |
| UKIP | 14.1% - 3,605,875 | (99%) 3,569,816 | (1%) 36,059 |
| LD | 9.1% - 2,327,195 | (20%) 465,439 | (80%) 1,861,756 |
| Green | 4.2% - 1,074,092 | (15%) 161,114 | (85%) 912,978 |
| Scotland | 4,094,784 (71.1%) 2,911,391 | 941,228 | 1,970,163 |
| SNP | 44.2% - 1,286,835 | (15%) 193,025 | (85%) 1,093,809 |
| Lab | 19.1% - 556,076 | (40%) 222,430 | (60%) 333,646 |
| Con | 22.9% - 666,708 | (60%) 400,025 | (40%) 266,683 |
| LD | 5.2% - 152,392 | (20%) 30,278 | (80%) 112,114 |
| UKIP | 2% - 58,228 | (99%) 57,646 | (1%) 582 |
| Green | 6.6% - 192,152 | (15%) 28,823 | (85%) 163,329 |
| Wales | 2,282,297 (65.6%) 1,497,186 | 664,496 | 832,690 |
| Lab | 37.7% - 564,439 | (40%) 225,776 | (60%) 338,663 |
| PC | 21.5% - 321,895 | (15%) 48,284 | (85%) 273,611 |
| Con | 18.1% - 270,991 | (60%) 162,594 | (40%) 108,397 |
| UKIP | 13.7% - 205,114 | (99%) 203,063 | (1%) 2,051 |
| LD | 6.1% - 91,328 | (20%) 18,266 | (80%) 73,062 |
| Green | 2.9% - 43,418 | (15%) 6,512 | (85%) 36,906 |
| Northern Ireland | 1,236,683 (58.1%) 718,513 | (45%) 323,331 | (55%) 395,182 |
| UK Total | 30,700,671 | 15,495,584 (50.47%) |
15,205,087 (49.53%)
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