Sunday, 4 December 2016

Latest General Election prediction from Electoral Calculus

There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 3 December 2016.

The results of the November polls were a little more diverse than last month. The measured Conservative lead over Labour varied from 9pc (Ipsos-MORI) to 16pc (ICM). This gives an average lead of around 15pc, which is a down on last month, though still fairly comfortable for the Conservatives.

Most polling was conducted before the UKIP leadership election, and the Richmond Park by-election.

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.8%33142.6%374
LAB31.2%23227.7%189
LIB8.1%87.9%7
UKIP12.9%111.7%1
Green3.8%13.5%1
SNP4.9%564.9%56
PlaidC0.6%30.6%4
Minor0.8%00.9%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Nov 2016 to 29 Nov 2016, sampling 6,651 people.

The average support levels are (with change from previous month): Con 43 (-1), Lab 28 (+2), Lib 8 (nc), UKIP 12 (+1), Grn 4 (nc).

The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 98 seats, winning 374 seats (-16 seats since 8 November).


Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
74%
Con/Nat coalition
6%
Labour majority
6%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
5%
Lab/Nat coalition
3%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
3%
No overall control
1%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
1%
Con/Lib coalition
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

Friday, 2 December 2016

A list of upcoming council by elections and vacant seats

Link to >>> Council election results May 2016 - April 2017


Collated By MiddleEnglander

There are 16 by-elections during the rest of December ahead of Christmas together with 3 already announced in January.  There are  a further 10 known vacancies - all in England - where there is as yet no date for the by-election.

5th December - 1Angus UA, Carnoustie  & District - SNP died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Ind

8th December - 5Lancaster BC, University & Scotsforth Rural - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green    
Maldon DC, Maldon West - Conservative died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, Green, UKIP, Ind, Anti housing
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Madeley - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Ind
Telford & Wrekin, Horsehay & Lightmoor - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con Lab, UKIP
Tonbridge & Malling BC, Trench - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP

15th December - 7Blackburn with Darwen UA. Higher Croft - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Fife UA, Leven, Kennoway & Largo - SNP resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Green
Powys UA, Welshpool Llanerchyddol - Independent died - 3 candidates: Con, LD, Ind
St Edmundsbury BC, Moreton Hall, Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind
Taunton Deane BC, Blackdown - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, LD, No Description
Teignbridge DC, Bovey - Conservative died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, 2 x Ind
Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP

21st December - 1Waverley BC, Cranleigh West - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, LD, UKIP

22nd December - 2Dover DC, Aylesham - Labour resigned - 2 candidates: Con, Lab
Eastleigh BC, Hedge End Wildern - Liberal Democrat resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD

12th January - 2Sunderland MB, Sandhill - Labour disqualified for non-attendance
Three Rivers DC, Gade Valley - Conservative died

26th January -1 East Ayrshire UA, Kilmarnock East & Hurlford  SNP died

Not yet called - 10    
Bromsgrove DC, Norton - Conservative died 22nd October
Broxbourne BC, Waltham Cross - Labour died 13th October
Cheshire East UA, Bollington - Conservative resigned around 19th October
Doncaster MB, Norton & Askern - Labour died 16th August
Forest of Dean DC, Lydbrook & Ruardean - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned around 23rd November
Havant BC, Emsworth - Conservative died 10th November
Preston BC, Preston Rural East - Conservative died 19th November
Rotherham MB, Brinsworth & Catcliffe - Labour resigned 30th November
Salford MB, Kersall - Labour died 27th November
West Oxfordshire DC, Hailey, Minster Lovell & Leafield - Conservative died around 21st September


Vacancies subject to "6 month" rule
Cardiff UA, Llandaff North - Labour resigned around 29th November
Durham UA, Coxhoe - Labour resigned 30th November
Fife UA, Kirkcaldy East - Labour died 19th November
Gloucestershire CC, Drybrook & Lydbrook - UKIP sitting as Independent resigned around 23rd November
Highland UA, Wick - SNP resigned around 22nd November
Suffolk CC,  Lowestoft South - UKIP resigned around 23rd November


Council by election results for the 1st December 2016

Link to >>> Council Election Results May 2016 - April 2017


Follow the link (click the council/council ward) to the result you are interested in.


Dorset, Ferndown CON GAIN


Tower Hamlets, Whitechapel INDEPENDENT WIN


THANKS

TO MIDDLEENGLANDER & @doktorb 

Warwick, Myton & Heathcote Council by election result 1st December 2016

Link to >>> Council Election Results May 2016 - April 2017


Warwick, Myton & Heathcote - Conservative hold

Party 2016 votes     2016 share   since 2015 "top"since 2015 "average"
Conservative
488
53.6%
+10.2%
+9.6%
Liberal Democrat 
228
25.1%
+10.5%
+10.1%
Labour
194
21.3%
from nowhere
from nowhere
Independent 


-14.9%
-14.0%
Green


-14.4%
-14.0%
UKIP


-12.6%
-13.0%
Total votes
910

31%
32%

Swing insignificant since 2015

Council now 31 Conservative, 9 Labour, 3 Residents, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green

---

Myton and Heathcote
Warwick DC

Conservative died

Mary NOONE (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Nick SOLMAN (Liberal Democrat)
Ben WESSON (Labour Party Candidate)


2015: 1286/1252, Ind 440/370, LD 431, Green 427/383, UKIP 374


Tower Hamlets, Whitechapel Council by election result 1st December 2016

Link to >>> Council Election Results May 2016 - April 2017


Tower Hamlets, Whitechapel - Independent gain from Tower Hamlets First sitting as Independent

Party  2016 votes     2016 share   since 2014 "top"since 2014 "average"
Independent
1,147
44.7%
from nowhere
from nowhere
Labour
823
32.1%
+6.5%
+7.9%
Conservative
217
8.5%
+0.8%
+1.0%
Liberal Democrat 
173
6.7%
+0.0%
-0.2%
Green
170
6.6%
-6.6%
-7.0%
UKIP
34
1.3%
-2.4%
-2.5%
Tower Hamlets First 


-40.3%
-41.1%
TUSC


-2.6%
-2.7%
Total votes
2,564

48%
50%

Swing, if meaningful, Independent / Tower Hamlets First to Labour ~1% / 2% since 2014

Council now 23 Labour, 9 Independent Group, 8 Independent, 5 Conservative

---

Whitechapel
Tower Hamlets LB

Tower Hamlets First sitting as Independent disqualified

Shafi AHMED (Independent)
Emanuel ANDJELIC (Liberal Democrats)
Will FLETCHER (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Victoria OBAZE (Labour Party)
Martin SMITH (UK Independence Party)
James WILSON (Green Party)

2014: Tower Hamlets First 2139/2117/2008, Lab 1359/1190/1188, Green 703, Con 409/405/345, LD 358, UKIP 199, TUSC 139
2010: Lab 2158/2091/2003, LD 1119/1069/906, Respect 1114/1004/890, Con 1044/915/832, Green 599/383/335
2006: Respect 1449/1084/1004, Lab 1107/1040/1019, Ind 650/186, LD 529/511/458, Con 397/344/284