Saturday, 30 May 2015

Legal bid to oust Carmichael as MP

source
Campaigners have begun a legal attempt to overturn the election of the former cabinet minister Alistair Carmichael as the MP for Orkney and Shetland.
The Lib Dem MP has faced calls to resign over the leak of a memo which suggested SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon wanted David Cameron as prime minister.
A petition was lodged at the Court of Session in Edinburgh in the name of four islanders.
They raised more than £40,000 through the internet to pay their legal costs.
The petition alleges that Mr Carmichael, Scotland's only remaining Lib Dem MP, breached Section 106 of the Representation of the People Act 1983, which outlaws false statements in relation to the "personal character or conduct" of a candidate.
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Can Alistair Carmichael's election be overturned?

Section 106 of the Representation of the People Act states that a person who "makes or publishes any false statement of fact in relation to the candidate's personal character or conduct shall be guilty of an illegal practice, unless he can show that he had reasonable grounds for believing, and did believe, that statement to be true".
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It was presented to judge Lord Uist and will now be considered by the Election Court in what is believed to be the first case of its kind in Scotland for half a century.
The court heard that the petition would focus on "character" rather than "conduct".
"Today is the start of clearing the air which has become really poisonous in our islands," said Tim Morrison, one of the petitioners, outside the court in Edinburgh.
"We would like Alistair Carmichael to stand down," he said, adding that it should be up to the voters of Orkney and Shetland to decide whether or not to re-elect him in a by-election.

French Ambassador

Mr Morrison and his fellow campaigners allege that the electorate was misled because Mr Carmichael lied about his knowledge of a controversial memo about the SNP leader.
Last week, an official Cabinet Office inquiry found Mr Carmichael approved the leak of the memo, which was published at the start of the general election campaign on 3 April.
Letter from Alistair Carmichael to Nicola Sturgeon
Ms Sturgeon tweeted Mr Carmichael's letter of apology
The document, written by a civil servant in the Scotland Office, claimed Scotland's first minister told the French Ambassador to the UK that she would prefer Mr Cameron as prime minister rather than Ed Miliband.
Both Ms Sturgeon and the ambassador insisted this was not the case, and the memo had contained a disclaimer that parts of the conversation may have been "lost in translation".
The Lib Dem MP wrote to Ms Sturgeon to apologise, saying the "publication was a serious breach of protocol and the details of that account are not correct".
At the time of the leak, Mr Carmichael had said he first heard of the memo when he was contacted by a journalist.
He has since acknowledged that while he had not seen the document before it was published, he was aware of its content and agreed that it should be made public.

Standards commissioner

Opponents said that if the truth about who leaked the memo had emerged during the general election campaign it could have altered the result in his constituency, where the former Secretary of State for Scotland was returned by a majority of just 817.
Tim Morrison said he was a member of the Scottish National Party but insisted the action was not politically motivated.
"I am here as a voter in my constituency," said Mr Morrison, 50, who flew from Kirkwall to Edinburgh on Friday morning and arrived at the court shortly after 15:00.
"We hope this process redeems the individual and the nature of politics in one go."
There have been protests on the islands calling for Mr Carmichael to stand down but he insists he will not, saying he has apologised, forfeited his ministerial pay-off and will continue as MP.
The parliamentary standards commissioner is considering whether to accept a complaint about his conduct. Police Scotland have also received a complaint.

UKIP Target seats for the 2020 UK General Election

Collated by @AndyJSajs

ConstituencyWinning Party 2015Maj/lead over UKIPSwing Required %Maj/lead over UKIP %Total Votes 2015UKIP position if not 2ndAdditional swing required to overcome intervening parties?
ThurrockCon: 19740.981.9749,5643rd
Thanet SouthCon: 22,8122.855.6949,401
HartlepoolLab: 13,0243.837.6639,490
Boston & SkegnessCon: 34,3365.0010.0043,339
Heywood & MiddletonLab: 25,2995.4610.9248,538
Dagenham & RainhamLab: 34,9805.7811.5743,050
Rochester & StroodCon: 47,1336.7913.5852,516
MansfieldLab: 46,7537.1514.3147,1933rd
Great GrimsbyLab: 54,9977.4114.8133,7313rd
Stoke-on-Trent NorthLab: 65,8877.6115.2338,6543rd
Rother ValleyLab: 77,2977.7615.5247,019
Stoke-on-Trent CentralLab: 85,1798.3316.6631,084
Basildon South & Thurrock EastCon: 57,6918.4316.8745,593
Dudley NorthLab: 96,7728.9117.8237,9923rd
Penistone & StocksbridgeLab: 108,9539.5519.1146,854
Bradford SouthLab: 117,2719.6719.3437,6003rd
Isle of WightCon: 613,7039.7519.4970,300
AshfieldLab: 129,2989.8119.6147,4093rd
Castle PointCon: 78,9349.8319.6645,450
Great YarmouthCon: 88,8199.9219.8344,4693rd
HyndburnLab: 139,04410.5421.0942,8873rdYES
Portsmouth SouthCon: 98,99010.7321.4541,9034th
Bristol SouthLab: 1411,12410.9421.8850,8423rd
West Bromwich WestLab: 157,74211.0522.1035,026
SouthportLD: 19,80211.1122.2344,1014thYES
Newport EastLab: 167,82411.1422.2935,1083rd
RotherhamLab: 178,44611.1722.3337,823
Don ValleyLab: 189,65811.3722.7342,4863rd
WorkingtonLab: 198,74411.3722.7338,4633rd
Stoke-on-Trent SouthLab: 208,96411.4622.9239,1073rdYES
DoverCon: 1011,56011.5123.0250,2243rd
Thanet NorthCon: 1110,94811.6323.2747,053
St Austell & NewquayCon: 1211,74711.6623.3350,3613rd
Walsall NorthLab: 218,66611.7523.5036,8833rdYES
Hornchurch & UpminsterCon: 1313,07411.8323.6755,236
Blyth ValleyLab: 229,22912.0024.0038,461
BurnleyLab: 239,68612.1824.3739,7463rdYES
Sittingbourne & SheppeyCon: 1412,16812.3224.6449,378
Doncaster CentralLab: 2410,09312.4924.9740,420
CaerphillyLab: 2510,07312.5025.0140,283
Folkestone & HytheCon: 1513,79712.5425.0855,010
LlanelliLab: 269,67912.5525.0938,5743rd
BosworthCon: 1613,60112.6925.3853,5824th
Camborne & RedruthCon: 1711,67612.7325.4645,8683rd
RedcarLab: 2710,43012.7425.4940,9193rd
Birmingham YardleyLab: 2810,49212.7525.5041,1513rd
TorfaenLab: 299,73512.8325.6637,9373rd
Rochford & Southend EastCon: 1811,29312.9525.9043,6083rd
Worsley & Eccles SouthLab: 3010,91212.9825.9542,0483rd
Stalybridge & HydeLab: 3110,72713.0726.1441,0343rd
Scarborough & WhitbyCon: 1912,50213.0926.1947,7393rdYES
Bexleyheath & CrayfordCon: 2011,46113.1226.2443,6853rd
EastleighCon: 2114,68113.2226.4555,5053rd
Batley & SpenLab: 3213,37813.2526.5050,4793rdYES
Bridgwater & Somerset WestCon: 2214,58313.3926.7854,447
Bolton South EastLab: 3310,92813.4126.8240,743
Wolverhampton North EastLab: 349,14513.4526.8934,0033rd
Northampton SouthCon: 2310,51213.5227.0338,8843rdYES
Dudley SouthCon: 2410,43413.6527.3138,2103rdYES
Carmarthen East & DinefwrPC: 110,77713.6827.3539,3994th
RochdaleLab: 3512,44213.6927.3945,430
NeathLab: 3610,17613.7027.4037,1353rd
Plymouth Moor ViewCon: 2511,68413.7127.4242,6063rdYES
PontypriddLab: 3710,46913.8227.6437,8823rd
Norfolk South WestCon: 2613,86113.8327.6650,110
Portsmouth NorthCon: 2712,68313.9727.9445,3903rd
Ashton-under-LyneLab: 3810,89814.0028.0038,9183rd
Bolton North EastLab: 3912,09414.0128.0243,1613rdYES
Norfolk NorthLD: 213,85614.0228.0449,4143rdYES
CleethorpesCon: 2812,67014.0528.1045,0893rd
RomfordCon: 2913,85914.0928.1849,178
Birmingham ErdingtonLab: 409,78414.1028.2134,6843rd
GraveshamCon: 3014,17814.1428.2850,1393rd
Gillingham & RainhamCon: 3113,39114.2228.4447,0783rd
Alyn & DeesideLab: 4111,87414.3728.7441,3143rdYES
SpelthorneCon: 3214,15214.4228.8449,079
West Bromwich EastLab: 4210,86814.4928.9937,4923rd
Cardiff South & PenarthLab: 4313,54314.5129.0246,6673rd
DartfordCon: 3315,23614.5329.0752,4183rd
Forest of DeanCon: 3414,39914.5429.0849,5203rd
Swansea WestLab: 4410,22314.5429.0835,1563rd
Hazel GroveCon: 3512,59914.5829.1543,2194th
Wyre ForestCon: 3614,42714.5929.1849,4403rd
StourbridgeCon: 3713,45414.6129.2346,0293rdYES
CanterburyCon: 3815,62914.6229.2353,4653rd
Leicester WestLab: 4510,10114.6329.2634,5223rd
South ShieldsLab: 4610,61414.6329.2736,265
Hull West & HessleLab: 479,33314.6729.3531,803
Hull EastLab: 4810,31914.6829.3635,144
Bishop AucklandLab: 4911,56814.6829.3739,3893rdYES
MakerfieldLab: 5013,15514.6929.3744,788
Devon NorthCon: 3915,37214.6929.3852,3203rdYES
IslwynLab: 5110,40414.6929.3935,401
Cardiff WestLab: 5212,88014.7129.4143,7924th
Clwyd SouthLab: 5310,33814.7429.4835,0643rdYES
Newcastle upon Tyne NorthLab: 5413,24214.7529.5044,8913rd
Sheffield South EastLab: 5512,31114.7729.5341,685
Leeds WestLab: 5611,35214.7729.5438,4233rd
Bognor Regis & LittlehamptonCon: 4013,94414.8029.6047,116
Maidstone & The WealdCon: 4114,81514.8129.6250,0103rd
Bournemouth WestCon: 4212,41014.8529.7141,773
Louth & HorncastleCon: 4314,97714.8829.7550,336
Doncaster NorthLab: 5711,78014.9129.8239,501
Norwich SouthLab: 5814,49414.9529.9148,4635th
Durham North WestLab: 5912,80914.9629.9142,8183rd
Stockton NorthLab: 6011,85514.9829.9639,5713rd
Note: maj / lead figure is an extrapolation when additional swing is required. In these cases the swing required percentage is converted into a majority / lead figure.