Friday, 26 June 2015

A list of council by elections and known vacancies

Collated by MiddleEnglander

There is 1 local council by-election remaining in June along with a total of 28 identfied during July. So far another 6 have been called in August together with 1 already in September. In addition there are a further 15 known vacancies and impending vacancies, 10 in England, 3 in Scotland and 2 in Wales. Of the total 51 identified vacancies 14 are as a result of the resignations of the sitting councillors as they are now MPs.

30th June - 1
Cardiff UA, Pentrych - Conservative resigned (now MP for Cardiff North) - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Plaid Cymru, Green, Ind

2nd July - 2 
Lincolnshire CC, Grantham Barrowby - Conservative resigned (now MP for Bury St Edmunds) - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Lincs Ind
Richmond-on-Thames LB, Hampton Wick - Conservative resigned (now MP for Twickenham) - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, Ind

9th July - 8
East Sussex CC, Old Hastings & Tressal - Labour died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Gwynedd UA, Morfa Nefyn - Plaid Cymru resigned (now MP for Dwyfor Meirionnydd) - 2 candidates: Plaid Cymru, Llais Gwynedd
Hastings BC, Central St Leonards - Labour died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, Ind
Hastings BC, St Helens - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Houslow LB, Brentford - Labour resigned (now MP for Brentford & Isleworth) - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Hyndburn BC, Spring Hill - Labour died -4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Green
North Lanarkshire UA, Thorniewood - SNP resigned - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, UKIP, Green, Socialist, Christian
Sandwell MB, Newton - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Green

16th July - 8
Cumbria CC, Greystoke & Hesket - Conservative resigned - 2 candidates: Con, LD
Denbighshire UA, Prestatyn East - Conservative resigned (now MP for Vale of Clwyd) - 4 Candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Ind
Kingston-upon-Thames LB, Grove - Liberal Democrat died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Norfolk CC, Gorleston St Andrew - UKIP disqualified - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Norfolk CC, Mile Cross - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Rother DC, Battle Town - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Tendring DC, Rush Green - UKIP resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Ind
Wrexham UA, Llay - Labour died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind., No Description

23rd July - 5
Blackburn with Darwen UA, Mill Hill - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Caerphilly UA, New Trdegar - Labour resigned (now MP for Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney)
Elmbridge BC, Long Ditton - Liberal Democrat resigned
North East Lincolnshire UA, Croft Baker - Labour died
Westminster LB, Harrow Road - Labour resigned

30th July - 5
Aberdeen UA, Hilton / Woodside / Stockethill - SNP resigned (now MP for Aberdeen North)
Aberdeen UA, Kincorth / Nigg / Cove - SNP resigned (now MP for Aberdeen South)
North Kesteven DC, North Hykeham Mill - Lincolnshire Independent resigned
Northumberland UA, College - Labour died
Wychavon DC, Droitwich East - Conservative died

6th August - 5
Glasgow UA, Anderston / City - SNP resigned (now MP for West Dunbartonshire)
Glasgow UA, Calton - SNP resigned (now MP for Glasgow Central)
Glasgow UA, Craigton - SNP resigned
Glasgow UA, Langside - Green resigned
South Lanarkshire UA, Hamilton South - SNP resigned (now MP for Lanark & Hamilton East)

13th August - 1
North Lanarkshire UA, Wishaw - SNP resigned (now MP for Motherwell & Wishaw)

10th September - 1
Edinburh UA, Leith Walk - SNP resigned (now MP for Edinburgh Nort & Leith)

Known vacancies in England - 10
Barnsley MB, Dearne North - Labour died 23rd May
Cornwall UA, Camborne Pendarves - UKIP resigned around 10th June
Derbyshire CC, Derwent Valley - Conservative died 5th May
Durham UA, Shotton & South Hetton - Labour died 23rd May
Norfolk CC, Loddon - Conservative died 23rd June
Peterborough UA, West - Conservative resigned around 10th April
Sandwell MB, Blackheath - Labour died 15th June
South Norfolk DC, Chedgrave & Thurton - Conservative died 23rd June
Tunbridge Wells BC, Southborough North - Conservative died 29th May
West Oxfordshire DC, Witney North - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned around 9th June

Known vacancies in Scotland - 3
Aberdeen UA, George Street / Harbour - SNP impending resignation
Aberdeen UA, Midstocket / Rosemount - Conservative impending resignation
Midlothian UA, Midlothian West - SNP impending resignation as now MP for Midlothian

Known vacancies in Wales - 2
Caerphilly UA, Bedwas, Trethomas & Machen - Labour died 7th May
Caerphilly UA, Cross Keys - Labour resigned 14th May

Council Election results for the 25th June 2015

Collated by MiddleEnglander

South Kesteven, Market & West Deeping - Independents retain 2 seats, Conservative retains 1 seat 

Party  2015 votes     2015 share   since 2011 averagesince 2007 average
Independent Broughton           612       23.2%           -1.0%           +0.6%
Independent Baxter         609       23.1%   from nowhere   from nowhere
Conservative *         605       22.9%           -1.7%           -0.3%
Independent Shelton         426       16.2%   from nowhere   from nowhere
Liberal Democrat         229         8.7%   from nowhere   from nowhere
UKIP *          155         5.9%   from nowhere   from nowhere
Independent Howard

         -24.1%         -25.3%
Independent Fraylich

         -15.2%
Green *

         -11.9%         -18.7%
Labour


         -10.1%
Total votes      2,636
             68%            83%

UKIP had 3 candidates in 2015, Green had 3 candidates in 2011 but 1 in 2007, Conservatives had 2 candidates in 2011 with one being elected
- the shares and change in shares are based on the average number of votes  for these parties 
- although the total vote changs since 2007 and 2011 are based on the total number of votes cast for all candidates

Swing is not particularly meaningful although small

Council political composition is now Conservative 45, Independent 6, Labour 3, UKIP 1, Unaligned 1


Cambridgeshire, Romsey - Labour gain from Liberal Democrats

Party  2015 B votes     2015 B share     since 2015 DC     since 2014 DC     since 2013 CC     since 2009 CC     since 2005 CC   
Labour         829        37.3%         -0.4%         -4.3%         +5.6%       +16.8%          +4.0%
Liberal Democrat           782        35.2%         +4.9%         -2.6%       -12.7%          +0.8%          -9.8%
Green         467        21.0%         -0.9%         +7.4%       +15.1%          +8.7%        +10.2%
Conservative         100          4.5%         -5.6%         -2.6%         +0.1%          -6.7%          -5.2%
UKIP           46           2.1%  from nowhere  from nowhere         -3.0%          -1.9%          +0.9%
Socialist



         -5.1%

Independent




        -17.6%
Total votes      
          51%          77%          95%           92%            60%

2014 & 2015 District Council elections on same boundaries as 205, 2009 and 2013 County Council elections

Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat ~2.6% since May and ~0.8% since 2014 but Liberal Democrat to Labour ~9% since 2013, ~8% since 2009 and ~7% since 2005

Council now 33 Conservative, 13 Liberal Democrat, 11 UKIP, 8 Labour, 4 Independent  

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thank you to Maxque & David Boothroyd for collating the information below

A list of council elections due & vacant seats

Countermanded

Market & West Deeping - South Kesteven DC - countermanded following the death of Reg Howard (Independent), chairman of the council, district councillor for 24, town councillor for 31 years and 13-term mayor of Market Deeping


2011: Con 959/766, Ind 847/844/533, Grn 622/330/302 
2007: Ind 903/806, Con 827, Grn 667, Lab 360
2006by: Con replacing Lab unopposed
2003: Lab, Con, Ind elected unopposed

Ashley Baxter (Independent)
Adam Brookes (Liberal Democrats)
Bob Broughton (Independent)
William Learoyd (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Nick Neilson (Conservative Party Candidate)
Robert O‘Farrell (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
David Shelton (Independent)
Roger Woodbridge (UK Independence Party (UKIP))


By-election

Romsey - Cambridgeshire CC - due to the resignation of Kilian Bourke (Liberal Democrat). He got a new job in London.


2013: LD 1118, Lab 741, Grn 138, Cambridge Socialists 118, UKIP 118, Con 103
2009: LD 829, Lab 493, Ind 425, Grn 297, Con 270, UKIP 96
2008by: LD 781, Lab 597, Con 289, Grn 237, Left List 207
2006by: LD 955, Lab 656, Grn 265, Con 258, Respect 240
2005: LD 1668, Lab 1235, Grn 402, Con 359, UKIP 45 

Debbie Aitchison (Green Party)
Richard Jeffs (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Nichola Martin (Liberal Democrat)
Zoe Moghadas (Labour Party)
Rahatul Raja (The Conservative Party Candidate)

In the case of Romsey, the county electoral division has the same boundaries as the city ward of the same name.

2015: Lab 1,636, L Dem 1,314, GP 951, C 436.
2014: Lab 1,205, L Dem 1,093, GP 394, C 206.
2012: L Dem 1,020, Lab 813, Cambridge Socialists 457, C 175.
2011: Lab 996, L Dem 870, GP 411, C 360, Cambridge Socialists 356.
2010: L Dem 1,615, Lab* 928, GP 697, C 600, Cambridge Socialists 404.
2008: L Dem 791, Lab 535, Left List 328, C 285, GP 189.
2007: L Dem 774, Lab 496, Respect 358, GP 271, C 238.
2006 (two vacancies): L Dem 1,065, 815; Lab 623, 491; GP 358, 216; Respect 294, 268; C 235, 216.
2004 (three vacancies): L Dem 1,192, 1,184, 1,125; Lab 746, 658, 577; GP 394, 360; C 206, 186, 172; UKIP 119.

Wednesday, 24 June 2015

YOUGOV - Voting intentions Vs Climate change

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/ <<< follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard 





Council elections 25th June 2015

Thank you to Maxque & David Boothroyd for collating the information

A list of council elections due & vacant seats

Countermanded

Market & West Deeping - South Kesteven DC - countermanded following the death of Reg Howard (Independent), chairman of the council, district councillor for 24, town councillor for 31 years and 13-term mayor of Market Deeping


2011: Con 959/766, Ind 847/844/533, Grn 622/330/302 
2007: Ind 903/806, Con 827, Grn 667, Lab 360
2006by: Con replacing Lab unopposed
2003: Lab, Con, Ind elected unopposed

Ashley Baxter (Independent)
Adam Brookes (Liberal Democrats)
Bob Broughton (Independent)
William Learoyd (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Nick Neilson (Conservative Party Candidate)
Robert O‘Farrell (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
David Shelton (Independent)
Roger Woodbridge (UK Independence Party (UKIP))


By-election

Romsey - Cambridgeshire CC - due to the resignation of Kilian Bourke (Liberal Democrat). He got a new job in London.


2013: LD 1118, Lab 741, Grn 138, Cambridge Socialists 118, UKIP 118, Con 103
2009: LD 829, Lab 493, Ind 425, Grn 297, Con 270, UKIP 96
2008by: LD 781, Lab 597, Con 289, Grn 237, Left List 207
2006by: LD 955, Lab 656, Grn 265, Con 258, Respect 240
2005: LD 1668, Lab 1235, Grn 402, Con 359, UKIP 45 

Debbie Aitchison (Green Party)
Richard Jeffs (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Nichola Martin (Liberal Democrat)
Zoe Moghadas (Labour Party)
Rahatul Raja (The Conservative Party Candidate)

In the case of Romsey, the county electoral division has the same boundaries as the city ward of the same name.

2015: Lab 1,636, L Dem 1,314, GP 951, C 436.
2014: Lab 1,205, L Dem 1,093, GP 394, C 206.
2012: L Dem 1,020, Lab 813, Cambridge Socialists 457, C 175.
2011: Lab 996, L Dem 870, GP 411, C 360, Cambridge Socialists 356.
2010: L Dem 1,615, Lab* 928, GP 697, C 600, Cambridge Socialists 404.
2008: L Dem 791, Lab 535, Left List 328, C 285, GP 189.
2007: L Dem 774, Lab 496, Respect 358, GP 271, C 238.
2006 (two vacancies): L Dem 1,065, 815; Lab 623, 491; GP 358, 216; Respect 294, 268; C 235, 216.
2004 (three vacancies): L Dem 1,192, 1,184, 1,125; Lab 746, 658, 577; GP 394, 360; C 206, 186, 172; UKIP 119.

YOUGOV - Would a fairer voting system be a better system?

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/ <<< follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard 


Denmark’s elections do not normally attract much interest in Britain. Last week’s was an exception; and I propose discussing it – though not for the reason it made the news. For the purposes of my argument it is irrelevant that the losing Prime Minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, is married to Stephen Kinnock.
Rather, my point is that Denmark shows how we could do politics differently in Britain - specifically, how to avoid two of the anomalies that our own election produced last month:
  • The Conservatives have an absolute majority despite winning only 37% of the UK-wide vote.
  • Ukip and the Greens together won more than 5 million votes but have only two MPs, while the SNP won fewer than 1.5 million votes and have 56 MPs.
The mismatch between votes and seats is not new: the Liberal Democrats have long complained about it; and Labour won an even bigger majority in 2005 with a slightly smaller share of the overall vote than the Tories achieved this time. However, last month’s contrast between the SNP and Ukip looks especially indefensible.
Now compare this with what happened in Denmark. Ten political parties arranged themselves into two loose alliances (though not always comfortably). The five right-of-centre parties won 52% of the vote and 90 mainland seats, while the five left-of-centre parties won 48% and 85 seats. Four more MPs were elected from Greenland and the Faroe islands; if they side with the Left in the new parliament, the Right will still have an overall majority of one.
Here was an election to delight supporters of proportional representation: large and small parties alike represented in parliament in line with their support; and a new government emerging from parties that, together, command an overall majority of voters. Should we adopt the same system here in Britain?
Spoiler alert: my answer later on in this blog is not a firm ‘yes’ or ‘no’, but depends on what we want an election to achieve.
Let’s start with the way Denmark’s system works. Its mainland is divided into ten multi-member constituencies that, together, choose 135 MPs. This gives a broadly proportional result, except for parties with well under 10% support, which tend to lose out. Forty more MPs are elected nationally, under a top-up formula, to ensure that the overall representation is almost exactly proportional. Thus Ms Thorning-Schmidt’s Social Democrats, the largest party, won 26.3% of the mainland votes and 26.8% of the seats (47 out of 175), while the smallest party in the new parliament, the Conservative Peoples’ Party, won 3.4% of the vote and 3.4% of the seats (six).
Suppose we scaled this up to a 650-seat House of Commons. We would elect 500 MPs from 37 multi-member constituencies, with a top-up of 150. Applied to last month’s vote-shares, this is how the outcome would have compared with what actually happened: 
2015 election
UK vote share (%)
Seats won
"Danish" system
Conservatives
36.8
331
240
Labour
30.4
232
198
Ukip
12.6
1
82
Liberal Democrats
7.9
8
51
SNP
4.7
56
32
Greens
3.8
1
25
Plaid Cymru
0.6
3
4
Northern Ireland parties
2.3
18
18
Other parties
0.9
0
0
To remain in government, David Cameron would have needed to combine with Ukip’s Nigel Farage and, possibly, Northern Ireland’s unionists.
Would this be better for Britain than the House of Commons we now have? Here are some of the advantages and disadvantages. 
Advantages:
  •  A Conservative-Ukip-unionist coalition parties would, just, enjoy the support of a majority of the people who voted in the general election.
  • For those interested in fairness, one in eight MPs would represent Ukip, and one in twenty would have represented the Greens, in line with their share of the vote.
  • Ukip would have ministers in a Tory-led coalition government (though not everyone will agree this is a good thing).
  • Instead of virtually all of Scotland’s MPs coming from the SNP, the pro-union parties would have almost half of Scotland’s MPs, reflecting the fact that they won almost half of Scotland’s votes.
  • In England, the contrast between Tory south and Labour north, greatly exaggerated by first-past-the-post, would greatly diminish. Both main parties would be well-represented at Westminster by all parts of the country.
  • The main parties would have to campaign in every corner of Britain, and not just the minority of marginal seats that they are defending or attacking.
  • The calculations above assume that a proportional system would have produced the same vote-shares for each party as happened last month. In practice, such a system would produce a wider range of parties (as in Denmark) and so more choice. More people could vote for a party they really believed in.
Disadvantages:
  • Coalitions would be a permanent, rather than occasional, feature of British political life. Governments would often emerge from party horse-trading rather than reflect the specific choice of millions of voters.
  • Ukip would have ministers in a Tory-led coalition government (though not everyone will agree this is a bad thing).
  • This year, the likely coalition government might be unstable, and either unable to take tough measures – or be forced by Ukip or the unionists to do things that most voters did not vote for. (In Denmark, although the Right enjoys a narrow overall majority, the government itself is likely to be a minority administration, as the Conservative Peoples’ Party says it will not join a formal coalition.)
  • An average “constituency” would have well over a million electors. The link would be broken between individual MPs and local communities of fewer than 100,000 people.
  • The wider choice of parties under a proportional system would mean greater fragmentation, with politicians under greater pressure to appeal to their own party’s narrow, purist base, rather than reach out to the widest possible range of voters.
  • Under our present system, voters unhappy with a government’s record generally know how to vote in order to “throw the rascals out”. In a more fragmented, proportional system it can be more difficult for voters to do this, when no big party is ever able to govern on its own and one or more small parties hold the balance of power.
Here’s the bottom line. In parliamentary systems, in which the government emerges from, and is answerable to, the legislature, instead of being directly elected (as in France or the United States), there is no system that fully achieves every reasonable objective. That is, we cannot have a system that can be guaranteed to (a) be completely fair to smaller parties, AND (b) maintain a direct link between each MP and a local community AND (c) generate governments that are specifically chosen by millions of voters rather than politicians haggling after the votes have been cast.
If, despite the clear outcome of the Alternative Vote referendum four years ago, we are to reopen a national conversation about the way we elect our MPs, we should at least start from a recognition that no system is ideal and that our choice depends on our priorities. For example: is fairness more important or less important than a clear choice of government? As with so many decisions in grown-up democracies, our quest is not for perfection but the least bad way forward. I grant that’s not a terribly inspiring conclusion but, to coin a phrase, it’s the inconvenient truth.