Wednesday, 30 September 2015

SUPER THURSDAY (REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS)

Link to the list of candidates >>> source

On the 1st October we will have 8 council by elections 7 in Scotland 1 in England.and as everyone mulls over opinion polls to see how Jeremy Corbyn is doing as the new leader of the Labour party and how the SNP, Conservatives, Greens & LibDems are doing in comparison. This Thursday gives us a chance to dissect some real voting patterns as real votes are cast not just assumptions picked up by pollsters

Now UKIP must be disappointed as the 7 Scottish elections does not have one UKIP candidate put forward. Any reason as to why?

Now past election results as comparisons. This is difficult due to the fact that most of the council elections only have results from 2012 bar one, and the SNP surge really took off in 2013 culminating in the General Election result. I will be compiling the general election result for each constituency. But this is only for a percentage guidance, as figures by ward are not published.

It will be interesting to see if the SNP can keep the surge going as they have since May. Can Labour win back the voters lost to the SNP? Can the Conservatives in one election who came first in 2012 get a technical gain from the SNP?

The LibDem fightback! Just where is it? Due to the fact that the Green Party have managed to field candidates in each of the Council elections we are looking at and the LibDems have only managed 3.

So how can we compare?

Below is a list of 6 of the 7 Scottish elections with 2012 top 1st preference vote and the 1st Oct 2015 vote will be put in brackets

COUNCIL ELECTIONSNP (1ST OCT 2015)LABOUR (1/10/15)CONSERVATIVES
(1/10/15)
GREENS
(1/10/15)
LIBDEMS
(1/10/15)
OTHERS
(1/10/15)
George Street / Harbour - Aberdeen672 ()456 ()178 ()194 ()NC ()251 (NC)
Midstocket / Rosemount - Aberdeen1233 ()1247()531 ()245 ()245 ()82 (NC)
Irvine Valley - East Ayrshire1252 ()1423 ()857 ()NC ()NC(NC)339 (NC)
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie - Fife941 ()1424 ()155 ()NC ()83 (NC)462 (NC)
Stirling East - Stirling1278 ()862 ()302 ()163 ()403 (NC)NC (NC)
Linlithgow - West Lothian1827 ()12922112 ()NC ()NC ()305 ()
TOTALS 20,814 ()7203 = 34.6% ()6704 = 32.2%  ()4135 = 19.9% ()602 = 2.9% ()731 = 3.5% ()1439 = 6.9% ()

NC = No Candidate


Glenrothes West and Kinglassie - Fife - Is the only council election with a comparison to 2015

Mar 2015 by: SNP 2539, Lab 1643, Con 202, UKIP 146, LD 61


Compared to 2012: SNP 941/910/349, Lab 1424/708, Ind 192/147, Pensioners 271, Con 155, LD 83

Gordon Brown must have seen a major defeat coming.

Below is the General Election percentages for the constituencies the wards are in.


 #GE2015 PercentagesSNP (1ST OCT 2015)LABOUR (1/10/15)CONSERVATIVES
(1/10/15)
GREENS
(1/10/15)
LIBDEMS
(1/10/15)
OTHERS
(1/10/15)
Aberdeen North56.4%26.9%12.1%
4.7%0.9%
As above




Kilmarnock & Loudoun55.7%30.4%12.5%
1.5%
Glenrothes59.8%30.6%7.7%
1.9%
Stirling45.6%25.5%23.1%3.1%2.7%
Linlithgow & East Falkirk52%31%12%
2%2.9%
Average53.9%28.9%13.5%
2.6%


So quite a staggering average the SNP are defending of over 50%


Election DateAuthorityWardResult  Labour to SNP
swing since 2012
  Labour to SNP
swing since 2007
9th JulyNorth Lanarkshire  ThorniewoodSNP hold25.3%24.4%
30th JulyAberdeenHilton / Woodside / Stockethill  SNP hold19.8%17.6%
30th JulyAberdeenKincorth / Nigg / CoveSNP hold22.8%21.2%
6th AugustGlasgowAnderston / CitySNP hold20.1%15.8%
6th AugustGlasgowCaltonSNP hold24.9%26.8%
6th AugustGlasgowCraigtonSNP hold21.4%22.1%
6th AugustGlasgowLangsideSNP gain from Green  13.1%17.0%
6th AugustSouth Lanarkshire  Hamilton SouthSNP hold15.6%18.4%
13th AugustFalkirkDenny & BankockSNP hold23.0%24.4%
13th AugustNorth Lanarkshire  WishawSNP hold20.8%23.3%
18th AugustOrkneyWest MainlandOrkney Manifesto win  n / an / a
10th September  EdinburghLeith Walk - 1st seatSNP hold7.7%7.6%


Leith Walk - 2nd seatLabour gain from Green  

10th SeptemberMidlothianMidlothian WestSNP hold6.2%4.3%
17th SeptemberSouth AyrshireAyr EastSNP hold 6.9%12.4%
1st OctoberAberdeenGeorge Street / Harbour


1st OctoberAberdeenMidstocket / Rosemount 


1st OctoberEast AyrshireIrvine Valley


1st OctoberFifeGlenrothes West & Kinglassie


1st OctoberMorayHeldon & Laich


1st OctoberStirlingStirling East


1st OctoberWest LothianLinlithgow


7th OctoberWestern IslesWest Side & Ness
n / an / a
8th OctoberHighlandAird & Loch Ness


PossibleFifeRosyth




Where will the trend go for the SNP?


The one council by election in England is also of interest

Banbury Grimsbury and Castle - Cherwell DC - Ann Bonner (Conservative), a former mayor of Banbury, died.
2012-2016 term (all outs due to new boundaries) 

2015: Lab 1533, Con 1460, UKIP 623, Grn 330, LD 230
2014: Lab 950, Con 574, UKIP 507, Grn 184, LD 103
2012: Con 821, Lab 713, Grn 186, LD 104
2011: Lab 969, Con 954, Grn 230, LD 214
2010: Con 1694, Lab 1176, LD 1080
2008: Con 1075, Lab 495, LD 163
2007: Con 1015, Lab 631
2006: Con 862, Lab 520, LD 334
2004: Con 1099, Lab 827
2003: Con 704, Lab 684
2002: Lab 810/748/721, Con 619/564/522

A very close Labour / Conservative tussle over the years. Who will win on Thursday?

Council by elections (candidates & past election results) 1st October 2015

Link >>> Council Election results June 2015 - April 2016

Link >>> Super Thursday (Real votes not opinion polls)

Collated by Maxque

George Street / Harbour - Aberdeen - Andrew May (SNP) resigned due to personal reasons.

2012: SNP 672/224, Lab 456/381, LD 262, Ind 222/26/14, Grn 194, Con 178, NF 29 (winners: SNP, Lab, Lab on 9th count; final count Lab 597, Lab 494, LD 464 for 2 seats)
2007: Lab 960/322, SNP 1272, LD 801, Grn 306, Con 261 (winners: SNP, Lab, LD on 4th count; final count LD 963, Grn 414, Lab 382) 

Brian Davidson (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)
Euan Davidson (Scottish Liberal Democrats)
Michael Hutchison (Scottish National Party (SNP))
Alex Jarvis (Scottish Green Party)
Mike Scott (Scottish Labour Party)

Midstocket / Rosemount - Aberdeen - Fraser Forsyth (Independent, elected as Conservative) resigned due to moving to York.

2012: SNP 1233/264, Lab 1247, Con 531, Grn 245, LD 245, Ind 82 (winners: Lab, SNP, Con on 6th count; final count Con 751, SNP 580)
Aug 08 by: SNP 873, Con 821, LD 693, Lab 518, Solidarity 31, Ind 20 (final and 5th count: SNP 1258, Con 1122)
2007: Con 1503, SNP 1431, LD 671/529, Lab 1144, SSP 153 (winners: Con, SNP, Lab on 5th count; final count Lab 1281, LD 1201)

Howard Gemmell (Scottish Labour Party)
Tom Mason (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)
Ken McLeod (Scottish Liberal Democrats)
Alex Nicoll (Scottish National Party (SNP))
Jennifer Phillips (Scottish Green Party)

Banbury Grimsbury and Castle - Cherwell DC - Ann Bonner (Conservative), a former mayor of Banbury, died.
2012-2016 term (all outs due to new boundaries) 

2015: Lab 1533, Con 1460, UKIP 623, Grn 330, LD 230
2014: Lab 950, Con 574, UKIP 507, Grn 184, LD 103
2012: Con 821, Lab 713, Grn 186, LD 104
2011: Lab 969, Con 954, Grn 230, LD 214
2010: Con 1694, Lab 1176, LD 1080
2008: Con 1075, Lab 495, LD 163
2007: Con 1015, Lab 631
2006: Con 862, Lab 520, LD 334
2004: Con 1099, Lab 827
2003: Con 704, Lab 684
2002: Lab 810/748/721, Con 619/564/522

Kenneth Ashworth (Liberal Democrats)
Shaida Hussain (Labour Party)
Christopher Manley (The Green Party)
Tony Mepham (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Linda Wren (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

Irvine Valley - East Ayrshire - Resignation of Alan Brown (SNP), the new MP for Kilmarnock and Loudoun.

2012: SNP 1252/847, Lab 1423, Con 857, Ind 339 (winners: Lab, SNP, SNP, Con on 2nd count; final count SNP 961, Con 896, Ind 451 for 2 seats, both SNP candidates still having a surplus.)
2007: SNP 1497/1251, Lab 1416/580, Con 1293, Ind 274 (winners: SNP, Lab, Con, SNP on 2nd count; final count SNP 1421, Lab 592, Ind 286, with Lab and Con surpluses to distribute) 

Jen Broadhurst (Scottish Green Party)
Susan McFadzean (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)
Alex Walsh (Scottish Labour Party)
Elena Whitham (Scottish National Party (SNP))

Glenrothes West and Kinglassie - Fife - Resignation of Peter Grant (SNP), the new MP for Glenrothes.

Mar 2015 by: SNP 2539, Lab 1643, Con 202, UKIP 146, LD 61
2012: SNP 941/910/349, Lab 1424/708, Ind 192/147, Pensioners 271, Con 155, LD 83 (winners: Lab, Lab, SNP, SNP on 7th count; final count SNP 1018, SNP 972, Pensioners 478, SNP 368 for 2 seats.)
2007: SNP 1824/1278, Lab 1627/585, Con 384, Ind 376, LD 369 (winners: SNP, Lab, SNP, Lab on 6th count; final count Lab 1058, LD 650) 

Julie Ford (Scottish National Party (SNP))
Jonathan Gray (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)
Lorna Ross (Scottish Green Party)
Alan Seath (Scottish Labour Party)

Hendon and Laich - Moray - Eric McGillivray (Independent) resigned due to family reasons.

Mar 2013 by: Ind 1507/496/175, SNP 1005, Con 558, Grn 242 (5th count: Ind 1507, Con 1005)
2012: Ind 735/584/241, SNP 797/678, Con 688, Grn 262 (winners: Ind, SNP, Ind, Con) on 5th count; final count Ind 764, Con 763, SNP 740 for 2 seats)
2007: Ind 813/744/531/354/254/155/114/92, SNP 1646, Con 606 (winners: SNP, Ind, Ind, Con on 8th count; final count Ind 952, Con 730, Ind 688 for 2 seats) 

Pete Bloomfield (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)
James Mackessack-Leitch (Scottish Green Party)
Joyce Ohara (Scottish National Party (SNP))
Dennis Slater (Independent)

Stirling East - Stirling - Resignation of Steven Paterson (SNP), the new MP for Stirling.

2012: Lab 862/858, SNP 1278, LD 403, Con 302, Grn 163 (winners: SNP, Lab, Lab on 3rd count; final count Lab 961, Lab 929, LD 507, Con 333 for 2 seats.)
2007: Lab 1396/779, SNP 1821, LD 765, Con 764 (winners: SNP, Lab, LD on 4th count; final count LD 1308, Lab 990) 

Luke Davison (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)
Chris Kane (Scottish Labour Party)
Gerry McLaughlan (Scottish National Party (SNP))
Alasdair Tollemache (Scottish Green Party)

Linlithgow - West Lothian - Resignation of Martyn Day (SNP), the new MP for Linlithgow and Falkirk East.

2012: SNP 1827/829, Con 2112, Lab 1292, Action to Save St John’s Hospital 280, NF 25 (winners: Con, SNP, Lab on 5th count; final count Lab 1627, SNP 1186.)
2007: SNP 1792/1340, Con 2120/194, Lab 1328, LD 739, Grn 316, SSP 49 (winners: Con, SNP, Lab on 6th count; final count SNP 2032, Lab 1702, SNP 1554 for 2 seats) 

Ian Burgess (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)
Brenda Galloway
Caron Lindsay (Scottish Liberal Democrats)
David Manion (Scottish Labour Party)
Maire McCormack (Scottish Green Party)
David Tait (Scottish National Party (SNP))

Latest Welsh Barometer polling interpreted by Roger Scully

Blog post written by @roger_scully 
In the brief period since he became party leader, people have been wondering whether Jeremy Corbyn might produce a boost to Labour’s support. The few Britain-wide polls conducted have so far shown little signs of this. But our new Welsh Political Barometer poll provides the first evidence, in Wales at least, suggesting a ‘Corbyn-bounce’ for Labour.
We see this both for Westminster and for the National Assembly. When we asked about general election voting intention, we saw the following levels of support for the parties (with changes on our last poll, in June, in brackets):

Labour: 42% (+5)
Conservative: 26% (-2)
UKIP: 16% (+1)
Plaid Cymru: 10% (-2)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (+1)
Others: 2% (-2)

This is a significant rise in support for Labour, putting them well above the 36.9% of the vote they secured in May’s election. If we take the changes since the general election implied by this poll, and apply them uniformly across Wales, then Labour would be projected to make three gains from their result in May – capturing Cardiff North, Gower and the Vale of Clwyd, all from the Conservatives. That would reduce the Conservatives in Wales once more to eight seats (the same number they had before the election), and increase Labour’s total to 28.
What about the National Assembly? We might expect that any ‘Corbyn effect’ would be less strong at the devolved level – after all, Jeremy Corbyn leads his party from Westminster and will not be standing in Wales next year. However, here too we see Labour’s support boosted significantly since our previous poll. Here are the figures for the constituency vote (with changes on our last poll, in June, again in brackets):

Labour: 39% (+4)
Conservatives: 23% (no change)
Plaid Cymru: 18% (-2)
UKIP: 13% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (+1)
Others: 2% (-1)

On the assumption of uniform national swing since the last Assembly election, this poll projects only one constituency seat to change hands: Plaid Cymru gaining Llanelli from Labour.
The figures for the regional list vote were as follows (with changes from the previous Barometer poll again indicated):

Labour: 34% (+2)
Conservatives: 24% (+2)
Plaid Cymru: 18% (-2)
UKIP: 14% (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 5% (no change)
Greens: 4% (no change)
Others: 2% (-1)

Again assuming uniform swings from 2011 across Wales, and after taking into account the distribution of constituency seats when allocating the list seats, this gives us the following projected overall outcome for the National Assembly:

Labour: 29 seats (27 constituency seats + 2 list seats)
Conservatives: 12 seats (6 constituency seats + 6 list seats)
Plaid Cymru: 10 seats (6 constituency seats + 4 list seats)
UKIP: 8 seats (8 list seats)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seats (1 constituency seat)

With little more than seven months to go until the National Assembly election in May, Labour thus remain well ahead of the field. And after having had a disappointing general election, the boost we see in their support in this new Barometer poll must be heartening for them. The details of the poll point to Labour doing particularly well amongst some of those who voted for Plaid Cymru and the Lib-Dems in May’s general election: nearly a quarter of those in our sample who voted for Plaid Cymru, and almost a third of Lib-Dem voters, now say they would vote Labour in a general election. At the same time, we must remember that it is only one poll; and also that if there has been a ‘Corbyn bounce’ for Labour, the party will need to sustain that all the way to the Assembly election next year for it to produce tangible results.
For the Conservatives, this poll will also surely be encouraging. Although their support for Westminster has slipped slightly since our poll in May, for the Assembly their numbers remain impressively robust. This poll has them in a very clear second place on both ballots for the devolved election, a position on which they can look to build during the campaign. In contrast, for Plaid Cymru this poll must be a disappointment, with their vote slipping by two points across the board. That may simply be random sampling variation from one poll to the next, but this poll suggests that far from challenging the Tories for second place in the Assembly election, UKIP may even put them in danger of coming fourth in the popular vote. For UKIP, this poll is yet further evidence that their strong election performance in May was no one-off, and that next year’s devolved election is replete with potential for the party. For the Liberal Democrats, about the best thing you can say is that this poll suggests that things may have stopped getting worse.
I’ll be back with more later.

Postscript:
And for the real hard-core Elections in Wales followers out there, here are the Ratio Swing projections from the poll.
For Westminster, Ratio Swing produces exactly the same projected result as UNS – Labour gaining Cardiff North, Gower and Vale of Clwyd. No other seats are projected to change hands.
For the Assembly, Ratio Swing projects two constituencies to change hands (rather than the one projected under UNS): Llanelli (being won by Plaid Cymru from Labour) and Brecon & Radnor (being won by the Conservatives from the Liberal Democrats). Once the regional list seats are computed, we get the following projected outcome:
Labour: 29 seats (27 constituency seats + 2 list seats)
Conservatives: 13 seats (7 constituency seats + 6 list seats)
Plaid Cymru: 10 seats (6 constituency seats + 4 list seats)
UKIP: 7 seats (7 list seats)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seats (1 list seat)