Saturday, 31 October 2015

COMRES POLLWATCH: ARE THE BOOM TIMES COMING BACK?

By Tom Clarkson
Research Team Leader
“We will not return to the old boom and bust” claimed Gordon Brown with perhaps a touch of hubris in his last budget as Chancellor in 2007. There’s been plenty of bust, if not a lot of boom, in the years since Mr Brown’s famous pronouncement – Britain has endured its deepest recession since the Great Depression in the meantime. But when will we reach the boom times again?
  
The return of public confidence
  
With figures released this week by the Bank of England showing that monthly mortgage lending is at its highest level since April 2008, public confidence also appears to be on the up.

The proportion of people who expect their personal financial situation to worsen in the next six months is at its lowest level since ComRes began work on R3's Personal Debt Snapshot in 2010 (see chart).
Debt worries are also at their lowest level for three years. Judged on public sentiment alone, the economic situation appears to be improving.
Challenges ahead
However, it’s not yet time to crack open the champagne. Our research highlights three further reasons to be cautious about the economic recovery.
1.   The absence of savings
Staggeringly, one in five British adults say that they do not have any savings at all at the moment. This figure – which is highest among the least affluent and has stayed relatively constant over the past year, despite the apparent upturn in economic fortunes – suggests that a large section of British society could struggle to cope with any adverse changes in the financial weather. This is particularly concerning ahead of a potential interest rate rise.
2.   Bad debt?
Despite a decline in recent years, two fifths of the British public still say that they are concerned about their current level of debt – hardly a “good” state of affairs.
But the type of debt that people worry about is likely to trouble central bankers most. Credit card debt consistently emerges as the primary driver of concern about personal debt, suggesting that we have not learned the lessons from the financial crash and the role of consumer credit.
3. The challenge of interest rates
Both of the above trends – the lack of flex in personal finances and concern about high levels of potentially unsecured debt – accentuates the concern raised by the ticking time-bomb, the potential for a rise in interest rates. Mark Carney has previously said that the decision to raise interest rates will come into “sharper relief” around the turn of the year and he warned again this week that households should prepare for a rate rise even if it remains “a possibility not a certainty”.

Worryingly, our research consistently shows that households are not following Mr Carney’s instructions to prepare for a rate rise – we repeatedly find a nation unlikely to factor a rate rise into their financial planning and unclear about the potential impact of a rate rise on them.
This is clearly a challenge for those across the financial services sector – from banks to advice providers - and one that those on the Monetary Policy Committee will be considering as they ponder the timing of a rate rise.
So, are the boom times coming back? Don't order the caviar just yet.
MEASURE YOUR SOCIAL MEDIA INFLUENCE

Most organisations know they need to be active on social media, but few really understand what impact it is having on their objectives. Our multi-lingual team uses industry-leading social listening technology developed at Harvard University to identify the key trends, conversations, and opportunities.
To learn more about how to enhance your digital influence, contact:
Rob Melvill I Research Team Leader I rob.melvill@comres.co.uk

List of MPs who gave pay rise of £7,000 away to good causes

edit

Information concerning the 56 SNP mps who gave their pay rise to charity but the Sun had not managed to mention.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Below are the names gathered by the Sun above is the link for the story done earlier concerning the Scottish MPs which The Sun / Indy chose to ignore.

The ten per cent pay rise means MPs now earn £74,000, up from £67,000 - at a time when public sector workers are facing pay caps of one per cent increases and the government is doing its best to scrap tax credits for working families.
The rise was recommended and implemented by the government's independent watchdog, which meant it went through automatically - but all of the party leaders told their MPs to give it away as a mark of solidarity.
69 MPs publicly pledged to give the extra £7,000 away to good causes, but The Sun found that only the following MPs could confirm they had actually done so:

SOURCE

Labour

  • Yvette Cooper
  • Vernon Coaker
  • Jo Cox
  • Neil Coyle
  • Jack Dromey
  • Ivan Lewis
  • Gloria de Pietro
  • Gisela Stewart
  • Conor McGinn
  • Andy Slaughter

Conservative

  • Nicola Blackwood
  • Maria Caulfield
  • Jason McCartney
  • Kevin Foster
  • Richard Fuller
  • Nicky Morgan
  • Paul Maynard
  • David Mowat
  • Andrew Percy
  • Dominic Raab
  • Andrew Stephenson
  • Chris White

Liberal Democrats

  • Nick Clegg
  • Tim Farron

Green


  • Caroline Lucas 

A list of upcoming council by elections and vacant seats

Link also to >>> Council Election results June 2015 - April 2016

Collated By MiddleEnglander

There are thought to be 22 by-elections for 23 seats during November with one of the contests in Aberdeenshire being for 2 seats. There are already 9 by-elections for 10 seats called in December with one for 2 seats in Bournemouth following an election petition. In addition there are another 13 known vacancies, 11 in England and 1 each in Scotland and Wales, where there is as yet no date. 

5th November - 2 for 3 seats
Aberdeenshire UA, Huntly, Strathbogie & Howe of Alford - SNP died and Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, Libertarian
Torbay UA, Clifton with Maidenway - Liberal Democrat died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green

12th November - 4
Bridgend UA, Ogmore Vale - Independent resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Ind
Conwy UA, Eglwysbach - Plaid Cymru resigned - 2 candidates: Con, Plaid Cymru
Dorset CC, Rodwell - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Shropshire UA, Belle Vue - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green

19th November - 7
Ashford BC, Aylesford Green - Labour resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, Ashford Independent
Carmarthen UA, Kidwelly - Labour died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, Plaid Cymru,People First, 2 x Ind 
Gwynedd UA, Dewi - Plaid Cymru resigned - 3 candidates: Lab, LD, Plaid Cymru
Gwynedd UA, Llanaelhaern - Llais Gwynedd resigned - 3 candidates: Plaid Cymru, Llais Gwynedd, Ind
Norfolk CC, South Smallburgh - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Norfolk CC, Watton - UKIP resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, Green, Ind
Surrey CC, Epsom West - Liberal Democrat resigned 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, Resident

26th November - 9
Ashfield DC, Selston - Selston Parish Independent resigned- 5 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Selston Parish Ind, Ind
Fife UA, Dunfermline North - SNP resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Green
Fife UA, Rosyth - SNP resigned (now MP for Dunfermline & West Fife) - 7 candidates: Con Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Green, Ind
Gwynedd UA, Pwllheli South - Llais Gwynedd died
Lancaster DC, Carnforth & Millhead - Conservative died
Newport UA, Bettws - Independent resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green 2 x Ind
Nottinghamshire CC, Selston - Selston Area Independent resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Selston Parish Ind, Ind
Rochford DC, Rochford - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Wiltshire UA, St Edmund & Milford - Liberal Democrat resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, Ind

3rd December - 5
Guildford BC, Ash South & Tongham - Conservative resigned
Malvern Hills DC, Teme Valley - Conservative died
Newham LB, Boleyan - Labour died
Shropshire UA, Meole - Conservative resigned
South Kesteven DC, Belvoir - Conservative resigned

10th December - 4 for 5 seats
Bournemouth UA, Kinson South - 2 Conservative disqualified following election petition
Fylde BC, Clifton - Conservative resigned
Huntingdonshire DC, Huntingdon East - UKIP resigned
South Lanarkshire, Blantyre - Labour died

Known vacancies in England - 11
Aylesbury Vale DC, Grendon Underwood & Brill - Conservative died 11th October
Bolton MB, Crompton - Labour died 9th October
Cornwall UA, Launceston Central - Liberal Democrat sitting as an Independent resigned around 7th October
Coventry MB, Lower Stoke - Labour died 14th October
East Herts, Hertford East - Conservative resigned around 28th October
Harborough DC, Market Harborough Logan - Liberal Democrat died 2nd October
Spelthorne BC, Shepperton Town - Conservative died 5th October
St Helens MB, Thatto Heath - Labour died 16th September
Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Northaw & Cuffley - Conservative died 14th September
Wolverhampton MB, Bilston East - Labour died around 6th October
Worcestershire CC, Stourport-on-Severn - Health Concern died 28th October 

Known vacancies in Scotland - 1
South Lanarkshire UA, Hamilton North & East - SNP died 21st October

Known vacancies in Wales - 1
Conwy UA, Gogarth - Conservative resigned around 28th October after becoming Assembly Member

Potential vacancies under "6 month" rule
North East Lincolnshire UA, East Marsh - UKIP impending resignation on 30th November

Friday, 30 October 2015

Council by election results 29th October

Links below to....

Council Election results June 2015 - April 2016

A list of upcoming council by elections and vacant seats


Collated bY MiddleEnglander

Barrow-in-Furness, Risedale - Labour hold

Party  2015 B votes     2015 B share   since 2015 "top"since 2015 "average"since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"
Labour         428        53.0%       -24.1%          -24.9%       -10.1%          -11.8%
UKIP         193        23.9%         +1.0%            +1.7%       +11.8%          +11.3%
Conservative           187        23.1%  from nowhere     from nowhere         -1.7%            +0.5%
Total votes            808
          42%            46%          62%             64%

Swing Labour to UKIP ~13% since May and (if meaningful) ~11% since 2011

Council now 27 Labour, 9 Conservative

Brentwood, Shenstone - Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat

Party  2015 B votes     2015 B share     since 2015    since 2014     since 2012 B     since 2012     since 2011   
Conservative            852         57.4%       -0.3%     +19.0%     +18.6%     +18.7%       +0.7%
Liberal Democrat            483         32.5%       +5.1%     -11.2%     -18.2%     -21.5%       +5.7%
UKIP            85           5.7%       -2.6%       -8.1%       -2.6%from nowhere       -2.7%
Labour            49           3.3%       -3.2%       -0.7%       +1.1%       -4.0%       -4.8%
Green            16           1.1%from nowherefrom nowherefrom nowherefrom nowherefrom nowhere
Total votes          1,485
        44%        73%      103%        94%        65%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 2.7% since May and 2.5% since 2011 
- but Liberal Democrat to Conservative 15.1% since 2014, 18.4% since 2012 by-election and 20.1% since May 2012  

Council now 24 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 2 Labour, 2 Independent

Cheshire East, Congleton East - Conservative hold

Party  2015 B votes     2015 B share   since 2015 "top"since 2015 "average"since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"
Conservative          700       36.5%         -2.7%            -1.3%         -6.3%            -5.3%
Liberal Democrat          542       28.3%       +18.5%          +18.5%       +15.6%          +15.0%
Labour          409       21.3%         +1.4%            +0.9%         -4.0%            -3.5%
UKIP          266       13.9%         -3.2%            -2.9%  from nowhere     from nowhere
Independent  

       -14.1%          -15.2%

Voice of Congleton  



       -19.2%          -20.1%
Total votes

         25%             27%          38%             40%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~10% since both May and 2011

Council now 53 Conservative, 16 Labour, 10 Resident, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent

Chorley, Euxton North - Labour hold

Party  2015 votes     2015 share     since 2014     since 2012     since 2010     since 2008   
Labour         697       57.3%     +12.7%       +3.5%     +10.6%     +12.2%
Conservative           443       36.4%       -0.3%       +1.6%     -16.9%     -18.5%
UKIP           76         6.2%     -12.4%       -5.1%from nowherefrom nowhere
Total votes     1,296
        78%        77%        47%        74%

Swing Conservative to Labour 6½% since 2014, 1% since 2012, ~14% since 2010 and ~15% since 2008

Council now 31 Labour, 14 Conservative, 2 Independent

Peterborough, West - Conservative hold

Party  2015 B votes     2015 B share     since 2015   since 2014 "top"since 2014 "average"  since 2012     since 2011   
Conservative        1,174         46.4%       +1.1%        +5.4%            +7.7%             +4.7%     -11.0%
Labour           742         29.4%       -2.4%        -2.1%            -2.8%       +8.2%       +4.2%
UKIP           415         16.4%       +1.6%        -3.0%            -4.2%       -2.9%       +6.2%
Liberal Democrat             103           4.1%from nowhere        -4.0%            -4.4%       -2.0%       -3.1%
Green             94           3.7%       -4.5%  from nowhere     from nowherefrom nowherefrom nowhere
Independent




     -11.8%
Total votes         2,528
        50%         70%             74%       98%        75%

Swing Labour to Conservative 1¾% since May, ~4% / 5% since 2014 but Conservative to Labour 1¾% since 2012 and 7½% since 2011

Council now 27 Conservative, 12 Labour, 7 Independent, 4 Liberal Democrat, 4 UKIP, 3 Liberal

Wealdon, Hellingly - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative

Party  2015 B votes     2015 share   since 2015 "top"since 2015 "average"since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"
Liberal Democrat         875       69.9%       +35.0%          +35.4%       +21.1%          +20.0%
Conservative         222       17.7%       -30.3%          -30.1%       -19.8%          -18.4%
Independent         154       12.3%  from nowhere    from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Previous Independent   

       -17.0%          -17.5%

Labour



       -13.6%          -14.0%
Total votes      1,251
          35%             36%          64%             65%

By-election Independent candidate had won as a Conservative in May defeating the new Councillor who had been elected in 2003, 2007 and 2011

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~32½% since May and ~20% since 2011 

Council now 49 Conservative, 4 Independent Democrat, 1 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent

Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/user/88/recent#ixzz3q8b3fVLy