Monday, 30 November 2015

List of predicted seat changes

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 52

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON37.8%33140.4%200+20351
LAB31.2%23229.1%019-19213
LIB8.1%86.8%02-26
UKIP12.9%113.6%00+01
Green3.8%13.3%00+01
SNP4.9%564.9%00+056
PlaidC0.6%30.6%10+14
Minor0.8%01.3%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

Source

List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2015
Barrow and FurnessCumbriaCONgain fromLAB: John Woodcock
Brentford and IsleworthHounslowCONgain fromLAB: Ruth Cadbury
BridgendMid GlamorganCONgain fromLAB: Madeleine Moon
Carshalton and WallingtonSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Tom Brake
Chester, City ofCheshireCONgain fromLAB: Chris Matheson
Derbyshire North EastDerbyshireCONgain fromLAB: Natascha Engel
DewsburyWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Paula Sherriff
Ealing Central and ActonEalingCONgain fromLAB: Rupa Huq
Enfield NorthEnfieldCONgain fromLAB: Joan Ryan
HalifaxWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Holly Lynch
Hampstead and KilburnCamdenCONgain fromLAB: Tulip Siddiq
Harrow WestHarrowCONgain fromLAB: Gareth Thomas
HoveEast SussexCONgain fromLAB: Peter Kyle
Ilford NorthRedbridgeCONgain fromLAB: Wes Streeting
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashireCONgain fromLAB: Catherine Smith
Newcastle-under-LymeStaffordshireCONgain fromLAB: Paul Farrelly
SouthportMerseysideCONgain fromLIB: John Pugh
Westminster NorthCity of WestminsterCONgain fromLAB: Karen Buck
Wirral WestMerseysideCONgain fromLAB: Margaret Greenwood
Wolverhampton South WestBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: Rob Marris
Ynys MonGwyneddNATgain fromLAB: Albert Owen

Council By Elections 3rd December 2015

Link also to >>> Council Election results June 2015 - April 2016

Collated by Maxque

Ash South and Tongham - Guildford BC - Stephen Mansbridge (Conservative) resigned. He was the Council Leader and he couldn’t accept than the borough voted to go from the Executive model to a hybrid one.

2015: Con 2299/2199/2104, Guildford Greenbelt Group 999, LD 900/665, Lab 746
May 2013 by: Con unopposed
2011: Con 1684/1683/1636, Lab 643/474
2007: Con 1393/1377/1354, LD 538/478/1354
Jul 2006 by: Con 1245, LD 684
2003: Con 1691/1395/1356, LD 1035/985/967, Lab 276/262/243

George Dokimakis (Labour Party Candidate)
Andrew Gomm (Conservative Party Candidate)
Kyle Greaves (UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY (UKIP))
Alan Hilliar (Liberal Democrat)
Ramsey Nagaty (Guildford Greenbelt Group) 

Teme Valley - Malvern Hills DC - Gill Farmer (Conservative) died. She was councillor for more than 20 years and was Chairman of the Council in 2004.

2015: Con 797, UKIP 306
2011: Con unopposed
2007: Con unopposed
2003: Con unopposed

Emmanuel Finndoro-Obasi (Conservative Party Candidate)
David Mears (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Sheree Miller (Liberal Democrats)
Veronica Oakeshott (Labour Party)
Diane Ofori (Independent)
Frankie-Rose Taylor (The Green Party)

Boleyn - Newham LBC - Charity Fiberesima (Labour) died.

2014: Lab 2658/2505/2425, Con 869/823/756, TUSC 342, CPA 270/259
2010: Lab 3261/3221/3107, Con 1354/1177/844, CPA 386/314/275, Kamran Malik Communities Welfare Party 116/81
2006: Lab 1627/1547/1512, Respect 1219/1082/1007, Con 528/484/426, CPA 308
2002: Lab 1321/1224/1122, Con 579, Grn 507, CPA 289

Nicholas Cooper (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Daniel Irlam (Liberal Democrats)
Michael Lucas-Gill (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Matthew Softly (Labour Party)

Meole - Shropshire UA - Mike Owen (Conservative) resigned to spend time with his family. He was a member of the Cabinet and county councillor between 2000 and 2001 and since 2005.

2013: Con 689, Lab 473, LD 92
2009: Con 1035, LD 416

Nat Green (Liberal Democrat) 
Nic Laurens (Conservative Party Candidate)
John Lewis (Labour and Co-operative Party)
David Morgan (UK Independence Party (UK I P))
John Newnham (Green Party)

Belvoir - South Kesteven DC - Thomas Webster (Conservative) resigned to focus on closing his business and personal issues.

2015: Con 1749/1570, Lab 763

Louise Clack (Labour Party)
Laura King (Independent)
Mike Taylor (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Hannah Westropp (The Conservative Party Candidate)

Sunday, 29 November 2015

General Election Prediction from Electoral Calculus

There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 29 November 2015 at 

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 52

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.8%33140.4%351
LAB31.2%23229.1%213
LIB8.1%86.8%6
UKIP12.9%113.6%1
Green3.8%13.3%1
SNP4.9%564.9%56
PlaidC0.6%30.6%4
Minor0.8%01.3%0
N.Ire1818
Prediction based on opinion polls from 13-Nov-2015 to 20-Nov-2015, sampling 6,974 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
78%
Con/Nat coalition
11%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
5%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
3%
Lab/Nat coalition
2%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

November polls generally saw an increase of the Conservative lead over Labour. Most polls showed a Conservative lead of around 7pc, but one pollster (ComRes) measured it at 15pc. At the moment that looks like an outlier which overstates the trend, but the trend itself is real - the Conservatives are gaining over Labour. 
The most recent polls from the five pollsters who published polls in November are: 
ICM (The Guardian) has Con 39, Lab 33, Lib 7, UKIP 12, Green 3 BMG Research has Con 37, Lab 30, Lib 7, UKIP 15, Green 4 Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 41, Lab 34, Lib 7, UKIP 7, Green 4 Survation (Leave.EU) has Con 37, Lab 30, Lib 6, UKIP 16, Green 3 ComRes (IoS;S.Mirror) has Con 42, Lab 27, Lib 7, UKIP 15, Green 3 
The averages: Con 40 (+2), Lab 29 (-3), Lib 7 (nc), UKIP 14 (+1), Grn 3 (nc). 
The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have majority of 52 seats, winning 351 seats (+18 seats since 1 November). 
Electoral Calculus 
source 

Benn Backed As Corbyn Chaos Continues

 Politics By  Graham Sharpe

HILARY BENN is being well backed to succeed Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader with bookmakers William Hill, who have cut his odds from 10/1 to 7/1 second favourite, while Corbyn has been slashed from 11/1 to 5/1 to stand down before the end of 2015.
Meanwhile, Labour's chances of retaining the Oldham West/Royton seat at this week's by-election have receded according to political punters who have caused William Hill to lengthen Labour's odds from 1/12 (stake £12 to win £1) to 4/11 (stake £11 to win £4), by placing a flood of bets on Ukip to win, causing their odds to be slashed from 6/1 (stake £1 to win £6) to 2/1 (stake £1 to win £2).
WHEN WILL CORBYN  STAND DOWN AS LEADER?....2015- 5/1; 2016- 5/4; 2017- 5/1; 2018- 10/1; 2019- 12/1; 2020- 7/1; 2021 OR LATER- 6/1
WHO WILL SUCCEED CORBYN AS NEXT ELECTED LEADER?....10/3 Jarvis; 7/1 Benn; 8/1 Watson; 9/1 Nandy; 12/1 Umunna; 12/1 D Miliband. Others on request.
OLDHAM WEST/ROYTON BY ELECTION....4/11 LAB (were 1/12); 2/1 UKIP (were 6/1); 100/1 CONS; 200/1 GREENS/LIB DEMS.
LABOUR SHARE OF VOTE?...Under 50%- 2/9. Over 50%- 3/1.

Contact

Graham Sharpe, Media Relations Director

Corbyn Backed To Go This Year

 Politics By  Graham Sharpe

A WEEK AGO bookmakers William Hill were offering 11/1 that Jeremy Corbyn would cease to be Labour leader during 2015. He is now down to 5/1 to do so as political punters back the under-fire boss to go before the New Year.
If not this year. then Hills make him 5/4 to go during 2016. 'Noone is currently backing Mr Corbyn to remain as Leader into 2017' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Corbyn faces a high pressure week, and punters are also betting that he could suffer a setback in the Oldham West/Royton by-election where Labour started out as red hot 1/12 favourites, but are now out to 1/4 (stake £4 for profit of £1), with Ukip's odds of pulling off a shock win halved from 6/1 to 11/4. 'Three quarters of all bets on the by election have been on Ukip' said Sharpe.
Hills make Corbyn 4/6 to cease to be Leader before Cameron stands down as Tory leader. And Dan Jarvis is 3/1 favourite with Hills to take over as the next elected Leader.
WHEN WILL CORBYN GO?.....5/1 This year; 5/4 Next year; 5/1 2017; 10/1 2018; 12/1 2019; 7/1 2020; 6/1 2021 or later.
OLDHAM W BY-ELECTION....1/4 Lab; 11/4 Ukip; 100/1 Tories; 200/1 Greens, Lib Dems
NEXT ELECTED LAB LEADER; 3/1 Jarvus; 8/1 Watson; 9/1 Nandy; 10/1 Umunna; Benn; 12/1 D Miliband. Others on request.

Contact

Graham Sharpe, Media Relations Director

A list of upcoming council by elections and vacant seats

Link also to >>> Council Election results June 2015 - April 2016

Collated By MiddleEnglander

There are 19 by-elections for 20 seats identified during December including one for 2 seats in Bournemouth following an election petition.

3rd December - 5
Guildford BC, Ash South & Tongham - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Guildford Greenbelt Group
Malvern Hills DC, Teme Valley - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Newham LB, Boleyan - Labour died - 6 candidates: Con, Lb, LD, UKIP, Green, Ind
Shropshire UA, Meole - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
South Kesteven DC, Belvoir - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Ind

10th December - 7 for 8 seats
Bournemouth UA, Kinson South - 2 Conservative disqualified - 12 candidates: 2 Con, 2 Lab, 2 LD, 2 Green, 2 Bournemouth Ind, 1 UKIP, 1 Patria
Fylde BC, Clifton - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind
Harborough DC, Market Harborough Logan - Liberal Democrat died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Huntingdonshire DC, Huntingdon East - UKIP resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
North East Derbyshire DC, Coal Aston - Conservative resigned - 2 candidates: Con, Lab
North East Derbyshire DC, Holmwood & Heath - Labour died - 2 candidates: Con, Lab
South Lanarkshire, Blantyre - Labour died - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Socialist

15th December - 1
Spelthorne BC, Shepperton Town - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green

16th December - 1
Conwy UA, Gogarth - Conservative resigned (now AM) - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Plaid Cymru, Ind

17th December - 4
Brent LB, Kensal Green - Labour died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
East Herts DC, Hertford Heath - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, No Description
Ryedale DC, Derwent - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Liberal, Yorkshire First, Ind, No Description
Worcestershire CC, Stourport-on-Severn - Health Concern died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Green, Health Concern

23rd December - 1
Aylesbury Vale DC, Grendon Underwood & Brill - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, LD, UKIP

There is already one by-election called for January with a further 14 known vacancies where there is as yet no date.

7th January - 1
Carlisle BC, Botcherby - Labour died.

Known vacancies in England - 13
Bolton MB, Crompton - Labour died 9th October
Chiltern DC, Amersham Town - Liberal Democrat died 6th November
Cornwall UA, Launceston Central - Liberal Democrat sitting as Independent resigned around 7th October
Coventry MB, Lower Stoke - Labour died 14th October
Dudley MB, St James - Labour died 11th November
Hertfordshire CC, Bushey North - Conservative died 7th November
Hounslow LB, Canford - Labour died 15th November
Rutland UA, Whissendine - Liberal Democrat resigned 6th November
St Helens MB, Thatto Heath - Labour died 16th September
Suffolk CC, Newmarket & Red Lodge - Conservative resigned 19th November
Thanet DC, Newington - UKIP resigned around 25th November
Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Northaw & Cuffley - Conservative died 14th September
Wolverhampton MB, Bilston East - Labour died around 6th November

Known vacancies in Scotland - 1
South Lanarkshire UA, Hamilton North & East - SNP died 21st October

Known vacancies in Wales - 0

Vacancies under "6 month" rule
Exeter BC, Pennsylvania - Conservative resigned 25th November
North East Lincolnshire, East Marsh - UKIP impending resignation on 30th November

Friday, 27 November 2015

Old On - Could Corbyn Controversy Cost Labour By Election Win?

 Politics By  Graham Sharpe

With Jeremy Corbyn missing his scheduled visit to Oldham West to support Labour's candidate in next week's by election, bookmakers William Hill are seeing support for Ukip to produce a shock victory there, and from opening odds of 1/12 (stake £12 to win £1), Labour have now lengthened to 1/4 (stake £4 to win £1), with Ukip shortening from 6/1 (stake £1 to win £6) to 11/4 (stake £4 to win £11).
'By-elections are notorious for producing shock results and political punters are sensing there could be another in Oldham West & Royton and betting accordingly' said William Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe. 'We're seeing almost no significant support for a Labour win at the moment with three in every four bets staked on Ukip.'
Such a defeat could cause Mr Corbyn even bigger problems than he is currently endeavouring to overcome following his controversial 'letter', wich has seen the odds for him to cease to be leader this year cut by William Hill from 11/1 to 7/1. Dan Jarvis has been installed as 3/1 favourite to succeed Mr Corbyn as Leader.
OLDHAM WEST/ROYTON BY ELECTION...1/4 Labour; 11/4 UKIP; 100/1 Tories; 200/1 Greens, Lib Dems
%AGE OF VOTES CAST FOR LABOUR? - UNDER 50%- 2/9; 50% OR OVER- 3/1
WHEN WILL CORBYN STAND DOWN AS LEADER?...7/1 2015; 5/4 2016; 9/2 2017; 10/1 2018; 12/1 2019; 6/1 2020; 6/1 2021 OR LATER
WHO WILL SUCCEED CORBYN AS ELECTED LEADER?...3/1 Jarvis; 8/1 Watson; 9/1 Nandy; 10/1 Benn; 10/1 Umunna; 12/1 D Miliband; 16/1 Starmer; 18/1 Kinnock; 18/1 Reeves; 50/1 Coaker; 50/1 Powell. Others on request.

Contact

Graham Sharpe, Media Relations Director

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Council By Election performance Since #GE2015

Link also to >>> Council Election results June 2015 - April 2016

Collated by marksenior

UKIP 53 by elections fought which had been fought previously Vote share down from 19.8% to 11.9%
28 by elections fought which had not been fought previously Vote share 8.8%

Lib Dems 65 by elections fought which had been fought previously Vote share up from 14.0% to 19.6%
16 by elections fought which had not been fought previously Vote share 12.0%

Labour 22 Scottish by elections fought previously and at by election Vote share down from 39.6% to 26.4%
74 Eng/Wales by elections fought previously and at by election Vote share down from 35.5% to 33.2%
3 seats not fought previously by election vote share 10.9%

Conservatives 26 Scottish seats fought previously and at by election Vote share up from 10.0% to 13.4%
77 Eng/Wales seats fought previously and at by election Vote share up from 33.0% to 33.6%
10 seats not fought previously by election vote share 9.6%
41 seats were also either contested in 2015 or had DC results which allow vote shares to be calculated in May . 
In these the Conservative vote share fell from 39.2% to 32.6% . Clearly the Conservatives are doing better
than in 2012/2013/2014 but not as well as they did in May

SNP 24 by elections fought previously ( all 2012 ) and at by election . Vote share increased from 34.2% to 47.2%

Plaid 8 by elections fought previously and at by election , Vote share increased from 33.2% to 41.3%
Plaid 3 by elections not fought previously vote share 16.1%

Greens 44 by elections fought previously and at by election , Vote share decreased from 10.7% to 9.3%
Greens 27 by elections not fought previously vote share 3.7% 

Could Corbyn Quit This Year?

 Politics By  Graham Sharpe

BOOKMAKERS William Hill have shortened their odds for Jeremy Corbyn to stand down as Labour leader this year from 11/1 to 7/1 following his letter to fellow MPs.
Hills saw a flurry of support for the new leader to go before 2016 after there were suggestions that Shadow Cabinet members could quit over Corbyn's statement that he could not currently back UK air strikes in Syria.
'Mr Corbyn's letter has encouraged political punters to speculate that he could quit or be forced out over this issue' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.
WILLIAM HILL: WHEN WILL JEREMY CORBYN CEASE TO BE LABOUR LEADER?.... 7/1 2015; 5/4 2016; 9/2 2017; 10/1 2018; 12/1 2019; 6/1 2020; 6/1 2021 OR LATER.
NEXT ELECTED LABOUR LEADER?...3/1 Dan Jarvis; 8/1 Tom Watson; 9/1 Lisa Nandy; 10/1 Hilary Benn; Chuka Umunna; 12/1 David Miliband; 16/1 Keir Starmer; 18/1 Rachel Reeves; 50/1 Vernon Coaker; Lucy Power. Others on request.
WHO WILL STAND DOWN FIRST? 4/6 Corbyn; 11/10 Cameron

Contact

Graham Sharpe, Media Relations Director

COMRES POLLWATCH: NOT SO GRIM UP NORTH FOR THE TORIES?

By Tom Clarkson
Research Team Leader
“We’ve put the Power into Northern Powerhouse. And we’ve caught the imagination of a nation looking for new answers.” George Osborne, 14 May 2015
     
When it was re-booted after the General Election, George Osborne’s renewed backing for the Northern Powerhouse was seen by some as a political masterstroke. Stealing the thunder of a weak Labour Party, helping to rebalance an economy too dependent on the City of London and rebranding the Conservative Party where it has historically been weak – the Chancellor was labelled a genius by some political commentators.
     
Mr Osborne was banging the drum for his Powerhouse again yesterday – announcing funding for a suite of policies in his Autumn Statement, including a “Northern Oyster card”.

Yet Mr Osborne’s claim to have “caught the imagination of a nation” with the policy seems a little overstated. A ComRes poll released last week showed that 44% of adults living in the North of England have never heard of the Northern Powerhouse, while a further one in five (20%) have heard of it, but don’t know anything about it.
Picture Source: BBC News / ComRes
This does not necessarily mean that the policy itself is doomed to go the way of the Big Society. Our poll also showed that Northerners like the ideas behind the policy – for example, the vast majority think that local politicians in the North, rather than in Westminster, should have control over services like transport and health.
The Northern Powerhouse is far from toxic. From George Osborne’s perspective, the problem at the moment is communications-related rather than policy-related. Mr Osborne will not be too worried about this and will have factored in the need for a long-term communications campaign around one of his flagship policies. As the Alastair Campbell adage goes, once you’re bored of repeating the same idea, the public are probably only just beginning to pick it up.
At its heart, though, this project has always had more than a whiff of an ulterior motive about it: namely, to strengthen the Conservatives’ base in Northern England and enable it to contest more seats in the region.
As my colleague Adam Ludlow argued in March 2014, any rejuvenation of the Tory brand in the North is likely to be “a long, drawn out process”. But it is clear now that progress is being made on this front.
We have looked at the voting intention figures from all six of our telephone polls conducted since May 7th and compared an aggregate of these to the actual General Election results from 2005, 2010 and 2015.

Unsurprisingly given their upturn in electoral fortunes, the Tories have improved across the country. But this improvement is regionally inconsistent, with the greatest strides made (relative to the 2005 General Election) in the North East, the East Midlands and the South West, as the chart below shows.
Across the intended engine room of the Northern Powerhouse (the North East, the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber), the picture appears to be improving for the Tories – but this is truer of the North East (where the party has moved from 20% in the 2005 election to 32% in our post-election polls) than the other two regions. Furthermore, as the increased support in the East Midlands and the South West shows, other factors are at work here.
In both the North East and the North West, the biggest jumps have been since the 2015 General Election. Evidently, correlation does not equal causation and it would be a stretch to attribute the boost in the North East and North West to Mr Osborne’s Powerhouse given low awareness of the policy. Even with the boost, the three northern English regions remain the worst performing areas for the Tories in England.
Undoubtedly, however, the Tories are now in a better position in Northern England than at any time since David Cameron took over leadership of the party. The Northern Powerhouse policy represents a well-timed focus on the North, consolidating the Conservatives’ progress and capitalising on Labour’s troubles.
The “detoxification” of the Tory brand in the North was always going to be a long process. For the time being, CCHQ will take some comfort from the fact that this process at least appears to have started.