as you can see here over a space of a week the forecast swings from leave to remain
final , final forecast from Harry
Party Turnout (voters identifying as that party 10/10 certainty to vote)
Con 83%, Lab 80%, UKIP 88%, Lib Dem 75%, SNP 83%, Green 68%, Plaid 100%, Others 63%
Party Splits Crunch (Unsures asked to decide and then added to tallies)
Party Name
|
REMAIN
|
LEAVE
|
Conservatives
|
49%
|
51%
|
Labour
|
66%
|
34%
|
United Kingdom Independence Party
|
3%
|
97%
|
Liberal Democrats
|
66%
|
34%
|
Scottish National Party
|
55%
|
45%
|
Green Party
|
74%
|
26%
|
Plaid Cymru
|
65%
|
35%
|
Other Parties
|
45%
|
55%
|
Calculation of Referendum Result based on party turnout and party splits
Name of party
|
Votes Cast (Election)
|
Votes Cast (Turnout)
|
REMAIN
|
LEAVE
|
Winner
|
Conservatives
|
10,327,668
|
8,571,964
|
4,200,262
|
4,371,702
|
LEAVE by 171,440
|
Labour
|
9,104,014
|
7,283,211
|
4,806,919
|
2,476,292
|
REMAIN by 2,330,627
|
UK Independence Party
|
5,702,372
|
5,018,087
|
150,543
|
4,867,544
|
LEAVE by 4,717,001
|
Liberal Democrats
|
1,819,652
|
1,364,739
|
900,727
|
464,011
|
REMAIN by 436,716
|
Scottish National Party
|
1,630,042
|
1,352,935
|
744,114
|
608,821
|
REMAIN by 135,293
|
Green Party
|
1,212,788
|
824,696
|
610,275
|
214,421
|
REMAIN by 395,854
|
Plaid Cymru
|
194,388
|
194,388
|
126,352
|
68,036
|
REMAIN by 58,316
|
Other Parties
|
294,386
|
185,463
|
83,458
|
102,005
|
LEAVE by 18,547
|
Grand Totals
|
30,285,310
|
24,795,483
|
11,622,650
|
13,172,832
|
LEAVE by 1,550,182
|
---
Final forecast June 20th
Name of party
|
REMAIN
|
LEAVE
|
Conservative
|
4,240,432
|
3,612,220
|
Labour
|
5,041,541
|
2,160,661
|
UK Independence Party
|
199,107
|
4,778,579
|
Scottish Nationalists
|
940,952
|
627,301
|
Liberal Democrats
|
1,119,927
|
393,488
|
Green Party
|
602,672
|
296,838
|
Plaid Cymru
|
105,603
|
93,648
|
Others
|
29,864
|
220,006
|
Grand Totals
|
12,280,098
|
12,182,741
|
---
this forecast 15th June
Name of party
|
REMAIN
|
LEAVE
|
Unsure
|
Turnout
|
Conservatives
|
244 (52%)
|
225 (48%)
|
58
|
82%
|
Labour
|
325 (69%)
|
143 (31%)
|
49
|
74%
|
Liberal Democrats
|
58 (73%)
|
22 (27%)
|
17
|
63%
|
UK Independence Party
|
12 (7%)
|
241 (93%)
|
5
|
87%
|
Green Party
|
59 (74%)
|
21 (26%)
|
4
|
73%
|
Plaid Cymru – Party of Wales
|
4 (67%)
|
2 (33%)
|
0
|
91%
|
Scottish National Party
|
39 (55%)
|
32 (45%)
|
11
|
78%
|
Other Parties
|
2 (15%)
|
11 (85%)C
|
0
|
79%
|
Conservatives 10,485,862 = 8,598,407 voters = REMAIN 4,471,172 LEAVE 4,127,235
Labour 9,587,116 = 7,094,466 voters = REMAIN 4,895,182 LEAVE 2,199,284
Liberal Democrats 1,198,414 = 755,001 voters = REMAIN 551,151 LEAVE 203,850
UK Independence Party 5,392,764 = 4,691,705 voters = REMAIN 328,419 LEAVE 4,363,286
Green Party 1,198,401 = 874,833 voters = REMAIN 647,376 LEAVE 227,457
Plaid Cymru 125,975 = 114,637 voters = REMAIN 76,807 LEAVE 37,830
Scottish National Party 1,797,566 = 1,402,101 voters = REMAIN 771,156 LEAVE 630,945
Other Parties 193,468 = 152,840 voters = REMAIN 22,926 LEAVE 129,914
The United Kingdom should REMAIN in the European Union 11,764,189
The United Kingdom should LEAVE the European Union 11,919,801
LEAVE majority of 155,612
Turnout: 51.65%
This forecast was produced by @HarryHayfield feel free to let us know of you own forecasts and predictions.
