Current Prediction: Conservative short 3 of majority
| Party | 2015 Votes | 2015 Seats | Pred Votes | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON | 37.8% | 331 | 35.4% | 323 |
| LAB | 31.2% | 232 | 29.9% | 237 |
| LIB | 8.1% | 8 | 7.4% | 8 |
| UKIP | 12.9% | 1 | 16.6% | 3 |
| Green | 3.8% | 1 | 4.2% | 1 |
| SNP | 4.9% | 56 | 4.9% | 56 |
| PlaidC | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6% | 4 |
| Minor | 0.8% | 0 | 1.0% | 0 |
| N.Ire | 18 | 18 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 11 Jun 2016 to 26 Jun 2016, sampling 9,348 people.
Probability of possible outcomes
| Conservative majority |
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| Con/Nat coalition |
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| Con choice of Lib/Nat |
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| Nat choice of Con/Lab |
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| Lab/Nat coalition |
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| Lab choice of Lib/Nat |
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| Labour majority |
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Political attention was clearly with the EU Referendum and its aftermath during
June. However there were some polls of Westminster voting intention taken both
before and after the referendum. Overall, the position is fairly stable, but
with a slight drift of Conservative support to UKIP particularly before the
vote.
It will remain to be seen in July whether the uncertainty around the leadership
of each major party influences the public's voting intention.
The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in June are:
Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 35, Lab 34, Lib 9, UKIP 10, Green 4
ComRes (IoS, SMirror) has Con 34, Lab 29, Lib 8, UKIP 19, Green 4
Opinium has Con 34, Lab 30, Lib 6, UKIP 19, Green 4
Survation (Mail on Sunday) has Con 32, Lab 32, Lib 9, UKIP 16, Green 4 (estd)
ICM (The Guardian) has Con 36, Lab 32, Lib 7, UKIP 15, Green 5
The averages: Con 35 (-1), Lab 30 (nc), Lib 7 (nc), UKIP 17 (+1), Grn 4 (nc).
The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will be 3 seats short of a
majority, winning 323 seats (-2 seats since 30 May).
Electoral Calculus
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
