ICM Poll converted into seats using Electoral Calculus

The actual full data is still to be published by ICM and we just have the headline rate to go by.

The headline rate was

Conservatives 39%

Labour 29%

UKIP 14%

Lib Dems 9%

Greens 4%

For the purpose of the calculator we had to shave 0.1% off each forecast as it came to more than 100%

Now the calculator can't account for regional variations as we don't have the data to input and as we have shown here the Lib Dems already seem to be on their way back to re gaining seats they lost in 2015 >>>>>Click here to see data

So I think any gains the Conservatives would make, would only then be lost to the Lib Dems. So yes it is a 10% poll lead but not much of change in the amount of seats each party has.

----------------------------------------------

The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative majority 40

Party	2015 Votes	2015 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	37.8%	331	38.9%	14	0	+14	345
LAB	31.2%	232	28.9%	0	16	-16	216
LIB	8.1%	8	8.9%	1	0	+1	9
UKIP	12.9%	1	13.9%	0	0	+0	1
Green	3.8%	1	3.9%	0	0	+0	1
SNP	4.9%	56	4.9%	0	0	+0	56
PlaidC	0.6%	3	0.6%	1	0	+1	4
Minor	0.8%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

List of predicted seat changes

Seat	County/Area	Predicted Change			MP as at 2015
Barrow and Furness	Cumbria	CON	gain from	LAB	: John Woodcock
Brentford and Isleworth	Hounslow	CON	gain from	LAB	: Ruth Cadbury
Cambridge	Cambridgeshire	LIB	gain from	LAB	: Daniel Zeichner
Chester, City of	Cheshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Chris Matheson
Dewsbury	West Yorkshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Paula Sherriff
Ealing Central and Acton	Ealing	CON	gain from	LAB	: Rupa Huq
Enfield North	Enfield	CON	gain from	LAB	: Joan Ryan
Halifax	West Yorkshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Holly Lynch
Hampstead and Kilburn	Camden	CON	gain from	LAB	: Tulip Siddiq
Hove	East Sussex	CON	gain from	LAB	: Peter Kyle
Ilford North	Redbridge	CON	gain from	LAB	: Wes Streeting
Lancaster and Fleetwood	Lancashire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Catherine Smith
Newcastle-under-Lyme	Staffordshire	CON	gain from	LAB	: Paul Farrelly
Wirral West	Merseyside	CON	gain from	LAB	: Margaret Greenwood
Wolverhampton South West	Black Country	CON	gain from	LAB	: Rob Marris
Ynys Mon	Gwynedd	NAT	gain from	LAB	: Albert Owen

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.