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Target seats based on current boundaries

@HarryHayfield kindly sent us a few lists of the target seats for Conservatives, Lib Dems, Labour and UKIP. It will obviously be all up in the air come the boundary changes but for the moment makes information which might be useful if they suddenly call a snap election.

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Top 24 Liberal Democrat targets
Number
Name of constituency
Lib Dem swing
1
Cambridge
0.58%
2
Eastbourne
0.69%
3
Lewes
1.07%
4
Thornbury and Yate
1.54%
5
Twickenham
1.63%
6
Dunbartonshire East
1.97%
7
Kingston and Surbiton
2.39%
8
St Ives
2.56%
9
Edinburgh West
2.93%
10
Torbay
3.42%
11
Sutton and Cheam
3.93%
12
Bath
4.06%
13
Burnley
4.08%
14
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
4.36%
15
Yeovil
4.67%
16
Fife North East
4.80%
17
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
5.62%
18
Colchester
5.74%
19
Cheltenham
6.06%
20
Cheadle
6.08%
21
Berwick-Upon-Tweed
6.08%
22
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
6.13%
23
Portsmouth South
6.25%
24
Brecon and Radnorshire
6.37%

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Top 50 Conservative targets (Seats that never voted Con since 1983 in italics)
Number
Name of constituency
Con swing
1
Chester, City Of
0.09%
2
Ealing Central and Acton
0.27%
3
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
0.30%
4
Brentford and Isleworth
0.41%
5
Halifax
0.49%
6
Wirral West
0.50%
7
Ilford North
0.60%
8
Newcastle-Under-Lyme
0.76%
9
Barrow and Furness
0.92%
10
Wolverhampton South West
1.00%
11
Hampstead and Kilburn
1.05%
12
Enfield North
1.18%
13
Hove
1.18%
14
Dewsbury
1.35%
15
Southport
1.50%
16
Lancaster and Fleetwood
1.52%
17
Carshalton and Wallington
1.59%
18
Derbyshire North East
1.96%
19
Harrow West
2.37%
20
Bridgend
2.44%
21
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East
2.48%
22
Westminster North
2.50%
23
Walsall North
2.63%
24
Tooting
2.65%
25
Wrexham
2.80%
26
Birmingham Northfield
2.95%
27
Wakefield
3.04%
28
Gedling
3.11%
29
Eltham
3.12%
30
Copeland
3.23%
31
Stoke-On-Trent South
3.25%
32
Birmingham Edgbaston
3.28%
33
Clwyd South
3.43%
34
Coventry South
3.65%
35
Darlington
3.84%
36
Clacton
3.89%
37
Delyn
3.91%
38
Blackpool South
3.98%
39
Alyn and Deeside
4.05%
40
Norfolk North
4.09%
41
Scunthorpe
4.24%
42
Bristol East
4.31%
43
Newport West
4.35%
44
Southampton Test
4.36%
45
Chorley
4.38%
46
Bishop Auckland
4.45%
47
Ynys Môn (Anglesey)
4.98%
48
Coventry North West
4.98%
49
Bolton North East
5.07%
50
Hyndburn
5.13%
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Labour's path to power (94 seats to gain a majority of 1)
Gower
Carlisle
Norwich North
Arfon
Derby North
Renfrewshire East
Stevenage
Reading West
Croydon Central
Leeds North West
Enfield Southgate
Gloucester
Vale Of Clwyd
Halesowen and Rowley Regis
Cannock Chase
Great Yarmouth
Bury North
Crewe and Nantwich
Morecambe and Lunesdale
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Morley and Outwood
Erewash
Nuneaton
Thanet South
Thurrock
Hendon
Finchley and Golders Green
Chipping Barnet
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
Ipswich
Dudley South
Stourbridge
Brighton Kemptown
Stroud
South Ribble
Brighton Pavilion
Bolton West
Broxtowe
Worcester
Elmet and Rothwell
Weaver Vale
Northampton North
East Lothian
Milton Keynes South
Telford
Calder Valley
Rossendale and Darwen
Aberdeen South
Bedford
Blackpool North and Cleveleys
Swindon South
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
Plymouth Moor View
Pudsey
Southport
Camborne and Redruth
Lincoln
Sherwood
Preseli Pembrokeshire
Portsmouth South
Peterborough
Amber Valley
Pendle
Battersea
Cardiff North
Hastings and Rye
Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Edinburgh South West
Sheffield Hallam
Colne Valley
Dover
Redditch
Corby
Bristol North West
Reading East
Gravesham
Waveney
High Peak
Scarborough and Whitby
Dumfries and Galloway
Warrington South
Edinburgh North and Leith
Warwick and Leamington
Milton Keynes North
Southampton Itchen
Harrow East
Aberconwy

Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Keighley
Stockton South
Vale Of Glamorgan
Warwickshire North
Northampton South
Crawley

If you are thinking “Now, where I have I seen this before) it’s because at the 1992 general election Labour also needed 94 seats to gain an overall majority and so I have simply copied their style of table. In order to gain a majority of one, Labour need a swing of 8.66% (whereas at Election 1992) they needed a swing of 8%
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Top 25 UKIP targets
Number
Name of constituency
UKIP swing
1
Thurrock
0.98%
2
Thanet South
2.85%
3
Hartlepool
3.83%
4
Boston and Skegness
5.00%
5
Heywood and Middleton
5.46%
6
Dagenham and Rainham
5.78%
7
Rochester and Strood
6.79%
8
Southport
7.06%
9
Mansfield
7.15%
10
Great Grimsby
7.41%
11
Stoke-On-Trent North
7.61%
12
Rother Valley
7.76%
13
Plymouth Moor View
8.06%
14
Ynys Môn (Anglesey)
8.23%
15
Stoke-On-Trent Central
8.33%
16
Basildon South and Thurrock East
8.43%
17
Walsall North
8.50%
18
Dudley North
8.91%
19
Stoke-On-Trent South
8.98%
20
Penistone and Stocksbridge
9.55%
21
Bradford South
9.67%
22
Isle Of Wight
9.75%
23
Ashfield
9.81%
24
Castle Point
9.83%
25
Great Yarmouth
9.92%
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