Sunday, 4 September 2016

General Election Prediction from Electoral Calculus

Current Prediction: Conservative majority 100

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.8%33142.1%375
LAB31.2%23227.5%188
LIB8.1%88.6%7
UKIP12.9%111.4%1
Green3.8%14.3%1
SNP4.9%564.9%56
PlaidC0.6%30.6%4
Minor0.8%00.7%0
N.Ire1818
Prediction based on opinion polls from 05 Aug 2016 to 28 Aug 2016, sampling 5,916 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
72%
Con/Nat coalition
7%
Labour majority
7%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
6%
Lab/Nat coalition
3%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
2%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
2%
No overall control
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 4 September 2016 at 

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

The growth of the Conservative lead over Labour continued through August, 
although polling was relatively light. Only four pollsters published a poll this 
month but they all agree the Conservative lead is around 11pc-14pc. This 
continues to be at the expense of both Labour and UKIP, who are both currently 
running leadership elections. 

The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in August are: 

TNS has Con 39, Lab 26, Lib 10, UKIP 11, Green 7 
Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 45, Lab 34, Lib 7, UKIP 6, Green 4 
YouGov (Times) has Con 40, Lab 29, Lib 8, UKIP 13, Green 3 
ICM (Guardian) has Con 41, Lab 27, Lib 9, UKIP 13, Green 4 

The averages: Con 42 (+2), Lab 28 (-1), Lib 9 (+1), UKIP 11 (-2), Grn 4 (nc). 

The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have a majority of 100 
seats, winning 375 seats (+25 seats since 31 July). 

Also new this month is the ability to run the user-defined predictor 
userpoll.html 
under the hypothesis of a split Labour party. 

Electoral Calculus 

-----------------------------------------

When using the 600 seat model but with the same numbers

National Prediction: Conservative majority 120

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON37.8%32442.1%360+36360
LAB31.2%20227.5%035-35167
LIB8.1%38.6%10+14
UKIP12.9%111.4%01-10
Green3.8%14.3%00+01
SNP4.9%504.9%01-149
PlaidC0.6%30.6%00+03
Minor0.8%00.6%00+00
N.Ire 16 00+016
This prediction is based on the projected new 2018 constituency boundaries (600 seats).

List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2015
Alyn and DeesideClwydCONgain fromLAB: Mark Tami
Battersea and VauxhallSouth LondonCONgain fromLAB: Unknown (changed seat)
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONgain fromNAT: Calum Kerr
Birmingham Erdington and Castle BromwichBirminghamCONgain fromLAB: Jack Dromey
Birmingham HarborneBirminghamCONgain fromLAB: Gisela Stuart
Birmingham NorthfieldBirminghamCONgain fromLAB: Richard Burden
Blackpool SouthLancashireCONgain fromLAB: Gordon Marsden
Bolton WestWestern ManchesterCONgain fromLAB: Unknown (changed seat)
Bradford East and HorsforthWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Imran Hussain
Bury NorthWestern ManchesterCONgain fromLAB: Unknown (changed seat)
CambridgeCambridgeshireLIBgain fromLAB: Daniel Zeichner
ChesterCheshireCONgain fromLAB: Chris Matheson
ChorleyLancashireCONgain fromLAB: Lindsay Hoyle
Coventry SouthCoventry and SolihullCONgain fromLAB: Jim Cunningham
DarlingtonDurhamCONgain fromLAB: Jenny Chapman
Derby EastDerbyshireCONgain fromLAB: Margaret Beckett
Derbyshire North EastDerbyshireCONgain fromLAB: Natascha Engel
DewsburyWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Paula Sherriff
Ealing CentralSouth LondonCONgain fromLAB: Rupa Huq
Enfield NorthNorth LondonCONgain fromLAB: Joan Ryan
Flint and Denbighshire NorthClwydCONgain fromLAB: Unknown (changed seat)
HalifaxWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Holly Lynch
Hampstead and KilburnNorth LondonCONgain fromLAB: Tulip Siddiq
Harwich and ClactonEssexCONgain fromUKIP: Douglas Carswell
HoveEast SussexCONgain fromLAB: Peter Kyle
Kingston upon Hull West and HaltempriceHumber areaCONgain fromLAB: Alan Johnson
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastTeessideCONgain fromLAB: Tom Blenkinsop
Newcastle-under-LymeStaffordshireCONgain fromLAB: Paul Farrelly
Nottingham North and HucknallNottinghamshireCONgain fromLAB: Graham Allen
Nottingham South and West BridgfordNottinghamshireCONgain fromLAB: Lillian Greenwood
Plymouth DevonportDevonCONgain fromLAB: Unknown (changed seat)
ScunthorpeHumber areaCONgain fromLAB: Nic Dakin
Southampton TestHampshireCONgain fromLAB: Alan Whitehead
Spen ValleyWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Jo Cox
Stoke-on-Trent NorthStaffordshireCONgain fromLAB: Ruth Smeeth
Wolverhampton WestBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: Rob Marris
Wrexham MaelorClwydCONgain fromLAB: Ian Lucas

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

2 comments:

  1. Which are the 3 seats which Electoral Calculus thinks the LDs would have won in 2015 under the new (projected) boundaries?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In answer to your question Westmorland and Lonsdale, Orkney & Shetland & Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North

      Delete