Friday, 16 September 2016

New Boundaries: England (UK) Parliamentary forecast by Electoral Calculus

Region by region

Region by region, the net change in seats is shown in this table:
RegionOld SeatsNew SeatsChangeCONLABLIBUKIPGreenNATMIN











North3530−50−500000
Lancashire3127−40−3−10000
Greater Manchester2726−1−1000000
Yorkshire3028−2−21−10000
Humberside3129−20−1−10000
West Midlands2825−30−300000
East Midlands3835−3−2−100000
Severn3633−3−2−100000











East Anglia363600000000
Essex3635−1−1000000
West303000000000
North London3633−30−300000
South London3735−22−3−10000
South West3129−2−2000000
South383800000000
South East3332−1−1001−100











There are full regional pages of explanation and seat breakdowns available. Just click on the region's name in the left-hand column of the table.
Generally, the regions of northern England and London lose the most seats, while southern England loses fewer seats. Since the former regions are more Labour-leaning than the latter, this is the main driver for the relatively larger losses of Labour seats.


England

The Boundary Commission for England published initial proposals on 13 September 2016.
The net effect of the changes for England is shown in the following table:
Old SeatsNew SeatsChangeDisappearSwitch OutSwitch InFresh
CON319310−9−12−14143
LAB206187−19−26−11153
LIB62−40−400
UKIP1210010
Green10−10−100
MIN0000000
Total533501−32−38−30+30+6

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