Sunday, 4 September 2016

ROUND UP OF COUNCIL ELECTIONS SEPTEMBER 2016

Link to >>> Council Election Results May 2016 - April 2017

Link to the results (number of elections)

1st September  (5)
8th September (4)
15th September (5)
20th September (1)
22nd September (9)
29th September (8)

Great analysis by MiddleEnglander

There were 32 by-elections during September 2016 with 13 seats (41%) changing hands. There have now been 105 seats contested since the annual elections in May with 39 (37%) changing hands, somewhat higher than the "norm" of around 30%. The September results can be summarised by:

Party  Contested      Defended        Retained          Gained              Lost                Won       retention rate
Conservative
31
15
9
1
6
10
60%
Labour
30
10
6
3
4
9
60%
Liberal Democrat 
25
2
2
8

10
100%
Plaid Cymru
2


1

1

SNP
1
1


1

0%
Green
14






UKIP
26
2
1

1
1
50%
Independent *
6
2
1

1
1
50%
British People
1






Mansfield Independent Forum 
1






Mebyon Kernow
1






People First
1






Total
139
32
19
13
13
32
59%

* 6 Independent candidates contested 5 by-elections

Conservatives gained 1 seat from Labour whilst losing 2 to Labour and 4 to Liberal Democrats
- gained Stockton-on-Tees, Grangefield on a ~10½% swing from Labour since 2015 and ~6% since 2011
   two member ward electing 2 Labour in 2015 and 2011, 2 Conservative in 2007 and split in 2005
- lost Allerdale, Cockermouth Christchurch to Labour, with a Liberal Democrat as runner up, on a ~13% swing since 2015 and ~10% since 2011
  two member ward electing Conservatives in 2015, 2011, 2007 and 2003 as well as 2010 by-election but recently on relatively small majorities
- lost North Warwickshire, Arley & Whitacre to Labour on a ~15% swing since 2015 and ~10% since 2011
  three member ward electing Conservatives in 2015, 2 Conservative & 1 Labour in 2011, 3 Conservatives in 2007 and 3 Labour in 2003
- lost Cotswold: Stow to a Liberal Democrat on a 21% swing since 2015
  single member ward (electorate 2,111) created in 2015; late Councillor represented the area at District and County for over 20 years
- lost Dacorum: Adeyfield West to a Liberal Democrat on a ~16% swing since 2015 and ~7½% since 2013 by-election
  two member ward split Conservative / Liberal Democrat in 2015, Conservative / Labour 2011 and 2007 with Liberal Democrat winning 2013 by-election and Conservative 2010 by-election
- lost Suffolk: Hadleigh to a Liberal Democrat on a ~9% swing since 2013 and ~3% since 2009
  single member ward won by Conservative in 2015 (sitting as Independent for 18 months before resigning) but Liberal Democrat in 2009 and 2005 (when Conservative third)
- lost Teignbridge: Teignmouth Central on a ~20% swing since 2015 and ~11% since 2011
  two member ward electing Conservatives in 2015, split Conservative / Liberal Democrat in 2011, 2 Liberal Democrats 2007 and split Conservative / Independent in 2003

Labour gained 2 seats from Conservatives (Arley & Whitacre and Cockermouth Christchurch) and 1 from SNP whilst losing 1 to Conservatives (Grangefield) and 3 to Liberal Democrats
- gained North Lanarkshire: Coatbridge North & Glenboig from SNP although there was a Labour to SNP swing of ~10% since 2012 and ~8% since 2007 but less since 2011 and 2009 by-elections
  four member ward election 2 Labour / 2 SNP in 2012, 2 Labour / 1 SNP / 1 Independent in 2007 with Labour winning both earlier by-elections
- lost Cardiff, Plasnewydd to a Liberal Democrat on a ~8½% swing since 2012 and ~2% since 2008
  four member ward returning Labour in 2012 but Liberal Democrats in 2008 and 2004
- lost North East Derbyshire: Tupton to a Liberal Democrat who had not contested the seat previously
  two member ward returning Labour in 2015, 2011 and 2003 (unopposed) but 2 Independents in 2007 (both 2003 Labour Councillors)
- lost Sheffield: Mosborough to a Liberal Democrat on a ~20% swing since recent years
  three member Metropolitan Borough ward electing Labour every year since 2004 apart from 2008 when 2 Liberal Democrats (including new Councillor) were elected (one a casual vacancy)

Liberal Democrats gained 4 seats from Conservatives, 3 from Labour and 1 from UKIP whilst retaining both seatsdefended
- gained Adeyfield West, Hadleigh, Stow and Teignmouth Central from Conservatives as well as Mosborough, Plasnewydd and Tupton from Labour
- gained Cornwall: Four Lanes from UKIP not having contested the seat previously 
  single member division (electorate 3,526) created in 2013; a Liberal (not Democrat) polled 17% in 2013

Plaid Cymru gained Carmarthenshire, Cilycwm (electorate 1,176) from an independent who had represented the area on various Councils for some 40 years

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