Monday, 29 February 2016

UK General Election Forecast from Electoral Calculus


Current Prediction: Conservative majority 40

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON37.8%33138.8%345
LAB31.2%23229.9%219
LIB8.1%87.5%6
UKIP12.9%114.0%1
Green3.8%13.2%1
SNP4.9%564.9%56
PlaidC0.6%30.6%4
Minor0.8%01.2%0
N.Ire 18 18
Prediction based on opinion polls from 12 Feb 2016 to 23 Feb 2016, sampling 6,487 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
68%
Con/Nat coalition
15%
Con choice of Lib/Nat
8%
Nat choice of Con/Lab
4%
Lab/Nat coalition
3%
Lab choice of Lib/Nat
1%
Labour majority
1%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

During February, there was a slight loss of ground by the Conservatives, who on average are down about one and a half per cent, according to the pollsters. But they still enjoy a nine per cent lead over Labour, which would give them a clear majority in the House of Commons. 


Also this month, the Boundary Commissions started work on redrawing the seat boundaries. This should be finalised by 2018, with preliminary proposals published this autumn. Electoral Calculus expects to have seat-by-seat analysis of these proposals once they are available. 
The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in February are: 


ICM (The Guardian) has Con 39, Lab 32, Lib 7, UKIP 11, Green 4 Ipsos-MORI has Con 39, Lab 33, Lib 6, UKIP 12, Green 3 ComRes (Daily Mail) has Con 38, Lab 31, Lib 8, UKIP 12, Green 3 YouGov (Times) has Con 37, Lab 30, Lib 8, UKIP 16, Green 3 
The averages: Con 39 (-1), Lab 30 (nc), Lib 8 (+1), UKIP 14 (nc), Grn 3 (-1). 


The new national prediction is that the Conservatives will have majority of 40 seats, winning 345 seats (-3 seats since 31 January). 
Electoral Calculus 


Sunday, 28 February 2016

The 10% swing from Labour to the Conservatives in just over 2 years

Average of polls

So from Feb 13 when Labour were at their highest poing 41.9% on average with pollsters that month to 29.3% the month after the General Election.

Where as the Conservatives went from 30.9% average in Feb to 38.3% in June 2015 not quite their high point which they reached in August.

Great google doc made by @britainelects

link to doc

MonthYearCONLABLDEMUKIPGRNOTH
February'16TBCTBCTBCTBCTBCTBC
January'1638.931.16.413.73.36.6
December'1538.930.96.713.64.06.0
November'1538.830.36.913.53.37.4
October'1538.031.87.212.73.56.8
September'1538.431.47.413.13.36.2
August'1540.030.37.311.84.36.5
July'1538.331.07.710.75.76.7
June'1538.329.38.710.75.77.3
May'1534.632.98.912.74.76.2
April'1533.633.78.313.75.05.9
March'1533.533.67.714.15.65.5
February'1532.533.57.614.46.45.6
January'1531.833.27.415.26.85.6
December'1431.733.57.615.65.95.6
November'1431.733.17.715.95.66.0
October'1431.833.57.816.54.85.7
September'1431.735.67.815.04.75.2
August'1432.936.38.313.44.34.8
July'1432.736.58.413.14.74.6
June'1432.135.87.914.74.84.6
May'1432.134.98.715.04.15.2
April'1432.436.59.414.12.64.9
March'1433.437.49.712.02.65.0
February'1432.738.29.512.62.54.5
January'1432.238.09.812.62.64.8
December'1332.938.710.111.12.74.6
November'1331.938.89.811.82.84.9
October'1332.738.310.011.62.74.7
September'1332.738.210.111.52.74.8
August'1331.938.010.412.22.74.7
July'1331.638.510.312.42.74.6
June'1330.038.19.814.13.05.0
May'1328.737.99.616.22.75.0
April'1330.639.610.412.52.54.3
March'1329.540.011.312.52.24.6
February'1330.941.910.49.82.24.8
January'1331.741.510.39.82.34.4
The average of Westminster voting intention polls conducted during each month.

Saturday, 27 February 2016

A list of upcoming council by elections and vacant seats

Link also to >>> Council Election results June 2015 - April 2016

Collated by MiddleEnglander

There are 17 known by-elections during March and 1 already called in April.  There are a further 27 known vacancies, 26 in England and 1 and Wales, where there is as yet no date although it is probable that many of these will be left vacant until May whilst 2 will cease to be vacancies once the timetable for the May elections becomes operative.

3rd March - 4
Blackpool UA, Bloomfield - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
East Dorset DC - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD
Havant BC, Bondfields - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Rutland UA, Whissendine - Liberal Democrat resigned - 3 candidates: Con, LD, UKIP

10th March - 2
Cumbria CC, Kendal Strickland & Fell - Liberal Democrat died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Windsor & Maidenhead BC, Maidenhead Riverside - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind

17th March - 3Broadland DC, Aylsham - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, LD
North Kesteven DC, Ashby Dr La Launde & Cranwell - Conservative died -  3 candidates: Con, LD, Lincolnshire Independent
Redcar & Cleveland UA, Hutton - Conservative died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind

24th March - 3Allerdale BC, Dalton - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Green, Ind
Allerdale BC, Moss Bay - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Kettering BC, St Peters - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green

31st March - 5Caerphilly UA, Moriah - Labour died
Craven DC, Embsay-with-Eastby - Conservative died
Dundee UA, Maryfield - SNP resigned - 8 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Green, TUSac, Ind
Essex CC, Clacton East - Tendring First disqualified
Richmondshire DC, Richmond Central - Liberal Democrat died

7th April - 1
Perth & Kinross UA, Almond & Earn - Independent died

Known vacancies in England - 26Barrow-in-Furness BC, Dalton South - Conservative died 7th January
Cambridgeshire CC, St Neots Eaton Socon & Eynesbury - Independent died 17th January
Castle Point BC, St George's - Conservative died 15th February
Cornwall UA, Menhendiot - Conservative died 8th February
Cornwall UA, Wadebridge West - Conservative resigned 16th February
East Hants DC, Clanfield & Finchdean - Conservative resigned middle of January
East Sussex CC, St Helens & Silverhill - Labour died February 11th
East Yorkshire UA, Pocklington Provincial - Conservative died around 17th February
Forest Heath DC, Brandon West - Conservative resigned in early February but subsequently died 10th February
Gloucestershire CC, Churchdown - Liberal Democrat died February 13th
** Hastings BC, Old Hastings - Labour died February 11th
** Huntingdonshire DC, St Neots Eynesbury - Independent died 17th January
** Knowsley MB, St Bartholomews - Labour died 14th September
** Knowsley MB, Shevington - Labour died 24th September
Lancaster BC, Carnforth & Millhead - Conservative died 12th February
Lancaster BC, John O'Gaunt - Labour died 22nd February
Lancashire CC, Lancaster East - Labour died 22nd February
Melton BC, Egerton - Conservative resigns 13th January
Rutland UA, Greetham - Conservative died 1st February
St Edmundsbury BC, Haverhill North - Conservative died 4th January
Staffordshire CC, Uttoxeter Town - Conservative died 9th February
Suffolk CC, Haverhill Cangle - Conservative died 4th January
Taunton Deane DC, Halcon - Liberal Democrat resigned around 6th January
** Three Rivers DC, South Oxhey - Labour died 30th January
* Welwyn & Hatfield BC, Northaw & Cuffley - Conservative died 14th September
* Wolverhampton MB, Bilston East - Labour died around 6th October

* seat to be contested again in May
** ward to be contested in May, potential "double" election

Known vacancies in Scotland - 0

Known vacancies in Wales - 1
Caerphilly UA, Ynysddu - Labour resigned around 5th January


Vacancies under "6 month" rule - 10
Bolton MB, Hulton - Conservative died 19th January
Bristol UA, St George West - Labour died 30th December
Castle Point BC, Canvey Island East - Independent resigned 24th February 
Colchester BC, Stanway - Liberal Democrat siting as Independent resigned around 12th February
Exeter BC, Pennsylvania - Conservative resigned 25th November
Manchester MB, Charlestown - Labour resigned probably during January
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Town - Labour resigned around 14th December
North East Lincolnshire UA, East Marsh - UKIP resigned 30th November
Portsmouth UA, Nelson - Labour sitting as Independent resigned around 10th February
Stockport MB, Cheadle Hulme South - Liberal Democrat died 17th January