Wednesday, 31 August 2016

Should there be a football deadline day tax?

As folks struggle to earn money on zero hour contracts, have to go to food banks and live homeless on the streets we revel in a day where already 1 billion pounds has been transferred between football clubs, more than likely it will be used as another reason to avoid the full amount of tax, as they have billions of pounds coming in from TV deals, it is almost a case of we must spend money rather than it be taxed.

I know some folks believe any type of taxation is bad and that it is great and market forces have created the prices we see. But as explained above moving money between these clubs in this way, paying players and their agents fast amounts of money, and this is far beyond thousands we now talk millions is beyond morals. It should no longer be a case of what is legally right or wrong it should be what is morally right or wrong.

Fair enough football does do its bit, and it does feel like lip service for grass roots football and community support schemes. footballers turn up to present a shirt in a hospital but always with a camera crew in tow, so it builds up their brand.

So I suggest why not have a deadline day tax. you could have it at 0.5% call it the Apple rate of taxation.

Now the next thing would be to suggest where it went, why not direct to local food banks / homeless shelters / schools Not direct to government.

Obviously the next thing we need to overhaul is the charity sector where folks get paid thousands just to collect money in but, but as a start would football clubs really miss 0.5% and there is no need to get the fans to pay more treat it as VAT, and if the clubs still cry about it, then why not pay 0.5% less for that over priced player you want anyway?



Council by elections for the 1st September 2016

Link to >>> Council election results May 2016 - April 2017

Collated by Maxque


Kinson North - Bournemouth UA - David Turtle (Conservative) resigned due to moving abroad. He was a councillor since 2015.

2015: Con 1638/1579/1439, UKIP 1362, Lab 1060/918/814, Grn 526/484, LD 453
2011: Con 914/891/803, Lab 827/730/693, LD 804/788/732, Ind 427
2007: LD 838/786/784, Lab 725/630/616, Con 706/673/665, UKIP 406/363
Sep 2005 by: LD 720, Lab 645, Con 456, UKIP 126 
2003: LD 1154/1076/1030, Lab 728/669/663, Con 420/411/401, Ind 272

Duane Farr (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Carla Gregory-May (Green Party)
Dennis Gritt (Labour Party Candidate)
John Perkins (Conservative Party Candidate)
Stephen Plant (Liberal Democrats)

Four Lanes - Cornwall UA – Derek Elliott (UKIP) resigned due to disagreements with the way local government works in UK (Cabinet and public servants too powerful, people voting according to party lines). He was a councillor since 2013.

2013: UKIP 239, Con 173, Lab 169, Liberal 143, MK 115

Nathan Billings (Liberal Democrat)
Dan Hall (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Christopher Lawrence (Mebyon Kernow – The Party For Cornwall)
Peter Sheppard (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Bernard Webb (Independent)
Peter Williams (Labour Party)

Ferndown – Dorset CC – John Wilson (Conservative) died. He was a county councillor since 2001 (Hampreston South 2001-2005, Ferndown since 2005) and a district councillor since 2011. He was Chairman of the Council from 2009 to April 2016, when he resigned that office due to ill health.

2013: UKIP 2222/2027, Con 2187/2085, Lab 567/466
2009: Con 3575/3460, UKIP 1780/1691, LD 913/873, Lab 368
2005: Con 5390/5306, LD 2422/2316, Ind 1497, Lab 1480, UKIP 1083

Jason Jones (Liberal Democrats)
Peter Lucas (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Steven Lugg (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Peter Stokes (Labour Party Candidate)

Parley – East Dorset DC - (Conservative) died.

2015: Con 1899/1740, UKIP 859/790, Ind 309, Grn 288/246

Brian Cropper (Labour Party Candidate)
Jason Jones (Liberal Democrats)
Andrew Parry (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Lawrence Wilson (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

Grangefield - Stockton-on-Tees UA - Michael Clark (Labour) died. He was a councillor since 2011 and his wife Carol is the other councillor for the ward. In his working life, he was a journalist, being, among other things, reporter for the Evening Gazette and Head of Communications for the Middlesbrough Council.

2015: Lab 1795/1663, Con 1297/1221, UKIP 459/416, LD 143/115
2011: Lab 1303/1297, Con 1180/1110, LD 128
2007: Con 1054/999, Lab 992/984, LD 321/301
2005: Con 1415/1252, Lab 1326/1316, LD 491/461 

Eleanor Clark (Labour Party)
Daniel Dalton (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Stephen Richardson (Conservative Party Candidate)
Nick Webb (Liberal Democrats)

Monday, 29 August 2016

Election forecast if Labour were to split by Electoral Calculus

The contrast between the Conservative and Labour leadership contests has already been marked. The Conservatives finished theirs in a matter of days while Labour's looks set to continue until late September. But Labour's problems go a lot deeper than the transient tumult of the leadership election.
The most likely outcome of the Labour leadership contest is that Jeremy Corbyn will be re-elected leader. A YouGov poll of Labour members for the Times in mid-July [1] has him winning 56−34 over the (then hypothetical) challenger Owen Smith. Even allowing for polling error, that points to a clear victory.
What happens next depends on the Labour members of parliament. Three-quarters of them, 172 out of 232, have already voted against Corbyn in a vote of no confidence at the end of June. They will not welcome his re-election, but what will they do about it? They have two main options: stay or go. But both have strong drawbacks.
If they stay they have to contend with Jeremy Corbyn as leader, as well as the strength of the party's energised left wing, a possible general election defeat, and the potential threat of deselection. And selection processes will really happen since the new boundaries scheduled for 2018 will shrink the number of seats from 650 to 600. Only about one in eight Labour-leaning seats might be left unchanged, and so most seats will face some change to their boundaries. And that means 232 MPs will be fighting for about 200 winnable new seats.

Their hope in staying would be to ride out the deselection risks, anticipate a defeat at the next general election and attempt to regain control of the party and rebuild afterwards. The historical parallel would be the recovery of Labour after Michael Foot's defeat in 1983.
The alternative to staying is leaving. A group of MPs could choose to leave the formal structures of the Labour party, which is equivalent to leaving the party and setting up a new one. One quick advantage would be that the new party could instantly become the official opposition if at least 117 MPs make the change. Their new leader would become the Leader of the Opposition and face Theresa May at Prime Minister's Questions each week. But the rump Labour party would retain the name, offices and (possibly) the annual £6 million of parliamentary "Short" money [2].
The new party would need a new name and aim to take a good chunk of the current Labour membership with it. But a majority of Labour members would likely stick with Corbyn, since they would have just voted for him. Also Labour enjoys long-term support in much of the country, sometimes from generation to generation. These long-term ties may not be easily broken, and some of those loyal party supporters will stick with Labour through thick and thin. So the new party should aim both to take voters from "old Labour" as well as other existing parties. The obvious historical parallel is the formation of the SDP in 1981 when twenty-eight Labour MPs left the party to create the new Social Democratic Party. The SDP achieved poll ratings of up to 50%, but never won more than six seats at general elections. Could a larger breakaway group do better?
Electoral Calculus has analysed a set of likely scenarios to find out. There is not yet polling evidence on the two key questions: how much would left-of-centre total support change, and what share of it would the new party get. So a range of possibilities is considered. Total Labour support ('Old Labour 'plus 'New Labour') could go up or down, depending on how messy the separation looks and the electoral appeal of the new grouping. The scenarios run from −5pc (total Labour support decreases from 31pc to 26pc) up to +20pc (support increases to 51pc). The split of these votes between 'Old' and 'New' is perhaps more likely to favour the new grouping, particularly if they can gather a majority of existing MPs. These scenarios run from 50pc (total Labour votes split equally between the two successor parties) to 70pc ('New Labour' gets 7 Labour votes out of every 10).
Overall Labour vote share change on 2015
'NewLab' sharePartyLab −5%Lab +0%Lab +5%Lab +10%Lab +15%Lab +20%
50 / 50Con407394381370358344
OldLab67799098105113
NewLab67799098105113
60 / 40Con403390377366351337
OldLab414854596467
NewLab98115130141153166
70 / 30Con394379366354339319
OldLab222730323539
NewLab129149168182195214
©2016 Electoral Calculus
Table: Seats won by the major parties if Labour splits under various scenarios (using old seat boundaries)
The table has a stark warning for Labour. In almost all the scenarios, the combined Labour parties win fewer seat than they did at the last general election. Only if overall Labour support increases by 20pc, do they equal their 2015 performance. And in all cases, the Conservatives remain the largest party in parliament and are almost certainly in government.
Let's look at a central realistic scenario where overall Labour vote goes up 10pc and 'New Labour' takes 60pc of the split. Then the Conservatives win 366 seats to have an increased majority of 82 seats, 'New Labour' is on 141 seats and 'Old Labour' has only 59 seats.
And this is before the effect of the new constituency boundaries. Using the projected new seat boundaries the Conservatives win 351 seats to have a majority of 102, with 'New Labour' on 125 seats and 'Old Labour' on 52 seats.
In a less favourable scenario, where opinion polls stay at current levels, then the results with the projected new boundaries are: Con 391 seats (182 seat majority), 'New Lab' 92 seats, 'Old Lab' 38 seats (well behind the Scottish Nationalists).
The message to Labour MPs is clear: look at the fire before leaping out of the frying pan.

References

This article appeared earlier in the Daily Telegraph online (link)

source http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Friday, 26 August 2016

A list of upcoming council by elections and vacant seats

Link to >>> Council election results May 2016 - April 2017

Collated By MiddleEnglander

There are 30 by-elections identified during September with 3 already in October along with  a further 16 known vacancies - 12 in England and 4 in Wales - where there is as yet no date for the by-election.

1st September - 5
Bournemouth UA, Kinson North - Conservative resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Cornwall UA, Four Lanes - UKIP resigned - 6 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Mebyon Kernow, Ind
Dorset CC Ferndown - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
East Dorset DC, Parley - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP
Stockton-On-Tees UA, Grangefield - Labour died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP

September 8th - 4
Barrow-in-Furness BC, Parkside - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Maidstone BC, Shepway South - UKIP died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Ind
Mansfield UA, Yeoman Hill - Labour died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Mansfield Ind Forum, Ind
Sheffield MB, Mosborough - Labour died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP

September 15th - 5Carlisle BC, Castle - Labour died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
East Hertfordshire DC, Puckeridge - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Newcastle-upon-Tyne MB, Blakelaw - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
North East Derbyshire DC, Tupton - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, British People
Shropshire UA, Bishop's Castle - Liberal Democrat resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green

20th September - 1 
Cardiff UA, Plasnewydd - Labour died - 6 candidates - Con, Lab, LD, Plaid Cymru, Green, UKIP

22nd September - 9Allerdale BC, Christchurch - Conservative resigned
Carmarthenshire UA, Cilycwm - Independent died - 7 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Plaid Cymru, 2 x Ind, People First
Cherwell DC, Adderbury, Bloxham & Bodicote - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
Gateshead MB, Chopwell & Rolands Gill - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
North Lanarkshire UA, Coatbridge North & Glenboig - SNP resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, Green
North Warwickshire BC, Arley & Whitacre - Conservative resigned
South Northamptonshire DC, Old Stratford - Conservative resigned - 2 candidates: Con, UKIP
Suffolk CC, Hadleigh - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green, UKIP
Teignbridge DC, Teignmouth Central - Conservative died - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP

29th September - 6Blackpool UA, Tyldseley - Labour died
Cotswold DC, Stow - Conservative died
Dacorum BC, Adeyfield West - Conservative died
Derby UA, Allestree - Conservative resigned
North Norfolk DC, Glaven Valley - Liberal Democrat resigned
West Lindsey DC, Cherry Willingham - Conservative resigned

6th October - 3East Devon DC, Exmouth Brixington - Conservative died
Glasgow UA, Garscadden & Scotstounhill - Labour died
Highland UA, Cullodon & Ardersier - Labour died

Not yet called - 16
Bolton MB, Rumworth - Labour died around 27th July
Doncaster, Norton & Askern - Labour died 16th August
East Riding of Yorkshire UA, St Mary's - Conservative died around 17th August
Gloucester BC, Longlevens - Conservative died 3rd August
Haringey LB, St Ann's - Labour resigned around 19th August
Kent CC, Swanley - Conservative died 2nd August
Kettering BC, Rothwell - Labour died around 20th July
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk BC, Heacham - Conservative resigned early July
Middlesbrough UA, Central - Labour resigned around 9th August
Rother DC, Darwell - Conservative resigned beginning of May
Sevenoaks DC, Swanley Christchurch & Swanley Village - Conservative died 2nd August
Wellingborough BC, Finedon - Conservative died 11th July

Caerphilly UA, Gilfach - Labour resigned around 14th April
Caerphilly UA, Risca East - Labour resigned late July following election to Assembly
Neath Port Talbot UA, Blaengwrach - Labour died 2nd August
Vale of Glamorgan UA, Gibbensdown - Labour resigned around 16th August

Council By-election result summary - 19 May 2016 to 25 August 2016

Link to >>> Council Election Results May 2016 - April 2017

collated by MiddleEnglander

There have been 72 by-elections for 73 seats since 5 May with 26 (36%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

Party  Candidates      Defended        Retained          Gained              Lost                Won        retention rate
Conservative
71
28
18
4
10
22
64%
Labour
62
21
15
4
6
19
71%
Liberal Democrat 
58
5
5
10

15
100%
SNP
4
1

1
1
1
0%
PC
6
2
2


2
100%
Green
32


1

1

UKIP
40
6
3
2
3
5
50%
Independent *  
34
10
4
1
6
5
40%
Farnham Residents  
3


2

2

Other local / regional ** 
6






BNP
1






Communist
1






English Democrat
1






SDP
1






Socialist Labour
1






TUSC
2






No Description
1


1

1

Other *
4






Total
328
73
47
26
26
73
64%

    *  34 Independent candidates contested 27 seats
  **  Yorkshire First (2), East Devon Independent Alliance, Mebyon Kernow, North East, United Thanet
***  Christian People Alliance, Justice, People before Profit, Pirate

Conservative contested 97% of the seats, Labour 85%, Liberal Democrats 79% whilst  Greens contested 44% and UKIP 55%.

Conservatives gained 4 seats (2 from Labour & 2 from Independents) and lost 10 (6 to Liberal Democrats, 2 Farnham Residents and 1 each to Independent and Green)
- gaining both Selby: Byram & Brotherton as well as Kent: Gravesham East from Labour along with Richmondshire: Catterick and Kings Lynn / West Norfolk: Valley Hill from Independents
- losing Cornwall: Newlyn & Goonharven, Dorset: Sherborne Rural, Eden: Alston Moor, Mole Valley: Leatherhead North, Northampton: Westone along with North Norfolk: Astley to Liberal Democrats
  and Waverley: Farnham Castle and Waverley: Farnham Shortheath to Farnham Residents along with Denbighshire: Dyserth to an Independent and Mid Suffolk, Barking & Somersham to a Green.

Labour gained 4 seats (2 from UKIP and 1 each from Independent and SNP) and lost 6 (2 to Conservatives, 2 UKIP along with 1 each to Liberal Democrat and SNP)
- gaining East Staffordshire: Stapenhill and Newcastle-under-Lyme: Silverdale and Parksite from UKIP, Fife: The Lochs from Independent (Communist) and North Ayrshire: Renfrew West from SNP
- but losing Ashford: Beaver and Essex: Basildon Laindon Park & Fryerns to UKIP, South Hams: Totnes to Liberal Democrats and Renfrewshire: Renfrew West & Gallowhill to SNP as well a 2 to Conservatives

Liberal Democrats gained 10 seats (6 from Conservative, 1 from Labour along with 2 from Independent and 1 from UKIP)
- Cornwall: St Teath & St Breward and Wiltshire: Trowbridge Grove from Independents and Cornwall: Newquay Treviglass from UKIP in addition to the 6 from Conservative and 1 from Labour.

UKIP gained 2 seats from Labour but lost 2 to them as well as 1 to a Liberal Democrat whilst Green gained 1 seat from a Conservative.
Independents gained a seat from a Conservative whilst losing 2 to Conservatives, 1 to Labour and 2 to Liberal Democrats  along with Gwynedd : Marchog to No Description 
- whilst SNP gained one from Labour but losing another.