Friday, 20 May 2016

Council Election Results May 2016 - April 2017

Link to the results

Link to >>> Lib Dem Gains (30)
Link to >>> Conservative (13)
Link to >>> Labour Gains (10)
Link to >>> Independents (8)
Link to >>> UKIP Gains (4)
Link to >>> Other Parties (3)
Link to >>> Plaid Cymru (3)
Link to >>> SNP Gains (3)
Link to >>> Green Party Gains (1)
Link to >>> No Description Gains (1)

Link to >>> Seats losses party by party since May 2016 main cycle

Result month by month


May 2016 Council by election results
June 2016 Council by election results
July 2016 Council by election results
August 2016 Council by election results
September 2016 Council by election results
October 2016 Council by election results
November 2016 Council by election results
December 2016 Council by election results
January 2017 Council by election results
February 2017 Council by election results

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Some great analysis from MiddleEnglander (correct as of 26th December 2016)

There were 188 seats contested in by-elections since the annual elections in May through to the end of the year with 69 (37%) changing hands. England had 156 seats contested with 52 (33%) changing hands, Scotland 13 and 10 (77%)  whilst Wales had 19 and 7 (37%).  The results across the UK can be summarised by:
Party Candidates   Defended     Retained        Gained             Lost              Won       retention rate
Conservative
182
78
50
13
28
63
64%
Labour
167
61
41
9
20
50
67%
Liberal Democrat 
150
14
13
25
1
38
93%
Plaid Cymru
13
2
2
3

5
100%
SNP
13
5
1
3
4
4
20%
Green
80
1

1
1
1

UKIP
113
10
4
3
6
7
40%
Independent *
69
15
7
8
8
15
47%
Other
40
2
1
4
1
5
50%
Total
827
188
119
69
69
188
63%

* 69 Independent candidates contested 53 seats.

The Conservatives contested 97% of all seats, Labour 89%, Liberal Democrats 80%, UKIP 60% and Greens 43%.  SNP contested 100% of the Scottish seats with Plaid Cymru 68% of those in Wales.

Conservatives gained 13 seats: 6 from Labour, 2 each from UKIP and Independents and 1 each from Liberal Democrats, Green and SNP
- whilst losing 28 seats: 16 to Liberal Democrats, 4 each to Labour and Independents, 3 to Resident Groups (in Farnham and Limpsfield) and 1 to Green

Labour gained 9 seats: 4 from Conservatives, 2 from SNP, 2 from UKIP and 1 from Independent
- whilst losing 20 seats: 6 to Conservatives, 5 to Liberal Democrats,  3 to UKIP and 2 to each Plaid Cymru, SNP and Independents.

Liberal Democrats lost 1 seat to Conservatives and gained 25 seats: 16 from Conservatives, 5 from Labour and 2 each from Independent & UKIP

Plaid Cymru gained 2 seats from Labour and 1 from an Independent
SNP gained 2 seats from Labour whilst losing 2 seat to them along with gaining 1 from and Independent whilst also losing 1 to Conservative and 1 to an Independent
Greens gained a seat from the Conservatives whilst also losing 1
UKIP gained 3 seats from Labour whilst losing 2 each to Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats
Independents gained 4 seats from Conservatives, 2 from Labour, 1 each from SNP and Tower Hamlets First 
- whilst losing 2 each to Conservatives and Liberal Democrats along with 1 each to Labour, SNP, Plaid Cymru and No Description
Farnham Residents gained 2 from Conservatives, Oxted & Limpsfield Residents 1 from Conservative together with No Description gaining 1 from an Independent
- with Tower Hamlets First not defending a seat won by an Independent.

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There have been by-elections for 139 seats since the annual elections in May with 51 (37%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

Party Candidates   Defended     Retained        Gained             Lost              Won       retention rate
Conservative
134
56
35
7
21
42
63%
Labour
123
46
30
8
16
38
65%
Liberal Democrat 
111
10
10
21

31
100%
Plaid Cymru
11
2
2
2

4
100%
SNP
7
2

2
2
2
0%
Green
64


1

1

UKIP
86
9
4
3
5
7
44%
Independent *
56
13
6
3
7
9
46%
Other
35
1
1
4

5
100%
Total
627
139
88
51
51
139
63%

* 56 Independent candidates contested 42 seats.

Conservatives gained 7 seats: 4 from Labour, 2 from Independents and 1 from UKIP
- whilst losing 21 seats: 12 to Liberal Democrats, 3 to Labour, 3 to Resident Groups (in Farnham and Limpsfield), 2 to Independents and 1 to Green

Labour gained 8 seats: 3 from Conservatives, 2 from SNP, 2 from UKIP and 1 from Independent
- whilst losing 16 seats: 5 to Liberal Democrats,  4 to Conservatives, 3 to UKIP, 2 to SNP and 1 each to Independent and Plaid Cymru.

Liberal Democrats gained 21 seats: 12 from Conservatives, 5 from Labour and 2 each from Independent & UKIP

Plaid Cymru gained a seat from both Labour and an Independent
SNP gained 2 seats from Labour whilst losing 2 seat to them
Green gained a seat from the Conservatives
UKIP gained 3 seats from Labour whilst losing 2 to Labour, 2 to Liberal Democrats and 1 to Conservatives
Independents gained 2 seats from Conservatives and 1 from Labour whilst losing 2 to Conservatives, 2 to Liberal Democrats along with 1 each to Labour, Plaid Cymru and No Description
Farnham Residents gained 2 from Conservatives, Oxted & Limpsfield Residents 1 from Conservative together with No Description gaining 1 from an Independent

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Some great analysis from MiddleEnglander (correct as of 24th August 2016)

There have been 72 by-elections for 73 seats in the 15 week period since the 2016 elections on 5 May, with 26 (36%) changing hands irrespective of the result in Fife, The Lochs where there is no Independent defending the seat.

The geographic distribution of the by-election seats can be summarised by:
- 61 in England with 21 (34%) changing hands
- 8 in Wales with 2 (25%) changing hands and
- 4 in Scotland with 3 (75%) changing hands.

An analysis of the seats contested / changing hands in England is given by:

Electorate
Total seats
  in ward / division   
  Seats
  contested  
  Changed hands    Proportion  Notes:
Up to 1,999
1
6
3
50%
Con gain from Ind, LD from Con, Green from Con
2
2
2
100%
Con gain from Ind *, LD from Con *
2,000 to 3,999
1
6
6
100%
Con gain from Lab, LD gain from Con (2), UKIP and Ind (2)
2
8
3
28%
Lab gain from UKIP *, Farnham Residents from Con (2) *
4,000 to 5,999
2
7
1
14%
UKIP gain from Lab *
3
5
2
40%
Lab gain from UKIP *, LD from Con *
6,000 to 7,999
1
3
1
33%
LD gain from Con where highest majority in 4 elections since 2005 has been 5.2%
3
3
1
33%
LD gain from Lab *
8,000 to 9,999
1
2
  
3
8
10,000 to 11,999  
1
2
3
6
12,000 plus
1
2
2
100%
Con gain from Lab, UKIP gain from Lab *
3
1


Total
61
21
34%


* "split" ward prior to by-election

Thus since the annual elections in May the defending party has lost 9 out of 12 English by-elections in small (less than 2,000 electors) and relatively small (2,000 to 3,999 electors) single member wards / divisions.  There were two seats changing hands in Wales (Independent gain from Conservative and No Description gain from Independent) both where the electorate was less than 2,000.

Of the remaining 12 seats changing hands, 10 were in "split" wards prior to the by-election.  The other 2 seats were the perpetual marginal of Dorset, Sherborne Rural together with the 2 member Kent, Gravesham East gained by the Conservatives last week which was previously Labour in 2005 and 2013 and Conservative 2009.

Whilst there are no statistics about previous years, I have commented before about the prevalence of smallish single member wards / divisions to change hands at by-elections in the circumstances of very long standing Councillors resigning / dying, Councillors resigning a relatively short time after election and those resigning "under a cloud".  The respective quality of new candidates is obviously a factor, either positive or negative.

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