Saturday, 7 May 2016

Notional results for parliamentary seats using 2016 council votes

In each of these exercises I will be using the council election vote from 2016, now folks do like to say people vote on local matters etcetera but to me they are a better indication than opinion polls, because in my opinion if you are a voter of a particular party then that will be the same mindset more or less for major elections and as always I prefer votes cast rather than opinions sort. These folks have had to get off their backsides and vote.

Click the constituency name for the constituency you are interested in. Information and breakdown on each page.

Basildon & Billericay CON HOLD but 6.5% swing CON to LAB

Birmingham Edgbaston LAB HOLD but lead of CON goes from 6.5% to 0.7%

Birmingham Erdington LAB HOLD but 6% swing UKIP to CONSERVATIVES

Birmingham Yardley LIB DEM GAIN

Bolton North East LAB HOLD Nominal change

Bolton West LAB GAIN

Bradford East LAB HOLD  But 8% swing Labour to Lib Dems

Bristol East LAB HOLD 4% SWING CON TO LAB

Bristol North West CON HOLD But both CON & LAB vote share down

Bristol South LAB HOLD But GREENS 2nd CONS drop 2nd to 4th

Bristol West GREEN GAIN

Broxbourne Comfortable CON HOLD but shows 5% swing UKIP > Labour

Bury North LAB GAIN But a very nominal gain

Cambridge LAB HOLD approx 10% swing LD to LAB

Calder Valley TIE From Conservative by 8.2% to both having same amount of votes.

Cheadle LIB DEM GAIN 

Cheltenham LIB DEM GAIN

Colne Valley LAB GAIN

Crawley LABOUR GAIN

Dewsbury Slightly stronger HOLD for LAB & GREENS into 3rd place

Dudley South LAB GAIN

Eastleigh LIB DEM GAIN

Elmet & Rothwell LAB GAIN 8.25% swing CON to LAB

Halifax LAB HOLD increased MAJ from 1% to 17.6%

Hastings & Rye LAB GAIN

Hazel Grove LIB DEM GAIN

Ipswich LAB GAIN

Leeds North West LIB DEM HOLD but CON up by 5% LD & LAB share down slightly.

Leeds West LAB HOLD but CON drop down to 4th Behind Greens & UKIP

Meriden CON HOLD, GREENS BECOME CHALLENGERS

Newcastle Upon Tyne North LAB HOLD but interesting for the big swing CON to LD

Oldham East & Saddleworth LAB HOLD but drop in share also big swing CON to LD

Portsmouth South LIB DEM GAIN Current incumbents CON down to 3rd

Solihull CON HOLD But GREENS go from 5th to 2nd

Southport LIB DEM HOLD 11.25% swing CON to LD as LD win every ward.

Watford LIB DEM GAIN

Wirral South LAB HOLD But 3.5% swing LAB to CON due to LD Surge to 18%

Wirral West CONSERVATIVE GAIN

Wolverhampton South LAB HOLD and extend lead over the Conservatives

Also

May 5th votes converted into a eu referendum forecast

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Resource tool used.

@AndyJSajs Is a great account to follow I am surprised he has less than a 1,000 followers. Andy has been busy again with another google doc.


docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13C07pTr6ccd62S2dkElV5DzC6uN5YKbF-z2ux4CA6vY/edit#gid=0




2 comments:

  1. Could you do a projection for Colchester? (or have you and i've missed it?) it had full out elections, so im just curious.

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    Replies
    1. There are four constituencies at present covering at least one ward in Colchester: Colchester itself, Witham, Maldon, and Harwich & North Essex. Colchester itself would be a Conservative hold going by these results. We cannot reliably use local election results as predictors because general election turnouts are always much higher and are disproportionate in terms of the voters they draw out.

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